Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 6 – Napoli > Napoli (162km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Kaden Groves (5/1)

2nd Jonathan Milan (10/1)

3rd Mads Pedersen (15/8F)

Stage 5 Bets

Mads Pedersen 3pts win @15/8 – 3rd

Unfortunately, the poor weather and treacherous conditions changed the way the race was ridden – teams didn’t push on to try to drop some sprinters for fear of hitting the tarmac. And who could blame them? Despite that, Pedersen looked well positioned in the final straight but got blocked in by Groves and couldn’t unleash his full sprint – he needs a change of luck.

Stage 6 Preview

We start and end stage 6 of the Giro d’Italia in the centre of Naples with a looping course around Mount Vesuvius before heading back up the coast into town. The profile is not dissimilar to stage 5 – a couple of classified climbs in the first two-thirds of the stage before a largely flat final 60km and so is likely to end in a bunch sprint.

However, with showers forecast all day, the roads will be super-slippery and that may change the complexion of the race. The final kilometre is more or less straight but will be into a slight headwind so the timing of the sprint will be crucial.

Stage 6 Contenders

As an aside, following Remco Evenepoel’s two tumbles on stage 5, Primož Roglič is now favourite with many bookmakers to win the Giro d’Italia. Evenepoel is certainly going to be hurting when he takes to the start line on stage 6 so could probably do without a ride in the rain around Naples. Let’s hope all dogs are on leashes or we might have another social media pooch pile-on.

This should end in a sprint but will the go-slow on stage 5 encourage more riders to try for the breakaway knowing teams won’t want to take too many risks behind? Or maybe even sprint teams putting a man up there themselves? Possibly. Or we could get a repeat of a small group that’s controlled at a sensible pace. The latter is more likely.

From what we’ve seen on the three ‘sprint’ stages so far, there’s actually not much between all of the sprinters. None have shown a top-end speed which is head and shoulders above the rest and but for crashes, positioning or a bit of bad luck, we could’ve seen three different winners.

Mads Pedersen didn’t get a chance to sprint on stage 2, was just edged out on stage 3 and then got boxed in on stage 5. Surely his luck will change and another filthy day with a few hills is right up his street. But if Trek-Segafredo plan not to make the most of those hills, as they didn’t on stage 5, then that reduces his chances of landing that elusive win.

Pedersen is joint favourite at around 11/4 with Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Kaden Groves who got his second Grand Tour win into Salerno. Similar to his win in the Volta a Catalunya a few weeks back, he needed to chase back on inside the final few kilometres in order to take his chance in the sprint. Maybe he needs a jolt of adrenalin to perform at his best. Confidence is huge for sprinters and despite losing his final leadout man, Ramon Sinkeldam, to sickness, must fancy his chances of doubling up.

Stage 2 winner Jonathan Milan can’t be discounted – he looked the likely winner at one point but just couldn’t get over the top of Groves but there really isn’t much between these front three and luck will play it’s role.

Not much has gone right for Team Movistar and Fernando Gaviria has drifted out to 16/1 to win stage 6. He was involved in the crash 7km out but was more hampered by a mechanical than any injuries sustained. It doesn’t feel like things are going well enough for Gaviria for him to turn it around, but the price does look big. He was well positioned on stage 2 but launched way too early – if he can stay hidden in the headwind and strike late then the Colombian has a chance to win.

Mark Cavendish fell heavily and hurt his knee so we should dodge him for this, but he was carrying good speed and could’ve gone very close had his wheel not slipped on the white paint. Alberto Dainese was disqualified for taking Cavendish out soon afterwards, but he too wasn’t far away. Both are around 25/1 for this.   

In short, if the stage is raced hard then Pedersen should again be the pick. However, with doubt whether that will happen and the likelihood again of some chaos given the slippery conditions, let’s give Gaviria the nod purely on price.

Stage 6 Bets

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1

Posted 00.20 BST 11th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker