Stage 6 – Palmi > Scalea (192km)

Profile

Stage 5 Result

1st Arnaud DÉMARE (9/1)

2nd Fernando GAVIRIA (12/1)

3rd Giacomo NIZZOLO (14/1)

Stage 5 Bets

Caleb Ewan 3pts win @5/2

Mathieu van der Poel 1pt each way (3 places) @7/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Chapeau-meter

That didn’t go well . As predicted, Alpecin-Fenix upped the pace on the climb and dropped Cavendish. As not predicted, Ewan was also dropped – in fact, he lost contact before Cavendish. Neither got back on to compete in the sprint. Van der Poel was positioned well inside the last 500m but had a coming together, appeared to suffer a mechanical and sat up. Vendrame made the top 20 but didn’t challenge. Best to move on.

Stage 6 Preview

After a short transfer over from Sicily, the riders finally reach the Italian mainland for what looks on paper a relatively straightforward route up the Calabrian coast. There’s a fourth-category climb which starts 20km in which will help the breakaway to form if it hasn’t done so already. The early climb does bring danger of a large group getting clear so the main sprint teams will have to police it well, but barring an almighty cock-up, this will end in a sprint . The run-in is uncomplicated – wide, straight and flat – and ought to finally prove who’s the fastest man at the Giro.

Contenders

So far we’ve been denied a proper sprinter shootout with all of the protagonists involved. Failed leadouts, unfortunate or poor positioning and untimely mechanicals have affected a number of them at different times making it unclear who is genuinely the fastest man here. Stage 6 could settle it – so who are the candidates?

It was surprising and a little worrying how quickly Caleb Ewan was dropped on the second-category climb on stage 5. Was this a build-up of fatigue following his stage 1 fall and ascent up Etna the previous day? Ewan said afterwards that he had to change a wheel at the bottom of the climb which was the “...worst possible timing” and did for his chances of staying in touch. Assuming that’s true (as we didn’t see it on camera) then that gives us some confidence that his legs haven’t blown and he should be good for the sprint here.

His final leadout man, Roger Kluge, hinted prior to stage 5 that they may just drop Ewan off inside the last couple of kilometres and let him find a good wheel – it might not be a bad idea as it’s better than being stuck behind a leadout that’s too slow to keep him near the front. He’s the favourite again here at around 7/4 – the shortest he’s been all Giro despite not yet getting his arms in the air. It’s difficult to say if that’s value given what we’ve seen so far, but it’s easy to envisage him rocketing down the finish straight and winning by a couple of bike lengths. 

When Quick-Step’s Mark Cavendish got shipped off the back, it was noticeable how much more support he had than Ewan with what seemed like the whole team dropping back to give him the best chance of chasing back on. And we can expect the same exemplary teamwork here to ensure Cavendish is delivered in prime position to launch his sprint. It’s unfair to say that things fell his way for the sprint win on stage 3 as things tend to fall your way when you do everything right, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can double up if others have better luck in running. You can get just over 2s for that to happen.

FDJ and Arnaud Démare will be buzzing after the Frenchman’s win on stage 5 – his first of the year and sixth in total in the Giro. And this was without his final leadout man, Jacopo Guarnieri, who got tailed off in the Cavendish group. The team seem to be working well and a confident Démare, now also in possession of the maglia ciclamino, could end up going on a run of wins as he did in 2020. 

Fernando Gaviria showed his frustration at the end of stage 5 as he appeared to get stuck in a low gear and had to pedal way too fast to keep up. His last man, Max Richeze, also dropped his chain outside the final kilometre to add to his annoyance. Despite this, he almost got up, and considering he was squeezed for room on stage 3 and still managed third shows that, given a clear run, he may have the legs to win one of these. It’s not unusual for Gaviria to seemingly find ways not to win though, so the 8/1 available is probably just playing for the place. 

Similarly, Biniam Girmay hasn’t yet had a clear run so it’s tricky to gauge how he fairs against the others on the flat. It would be great before this Giro is out to see the Eritrean lift his arms but we may need to wait for the slightly tougher, classics-like stages. 

Of the others, we can expect to see Giacomo Nizzolo challenging for a place but probably not the win, and what of Mathieu van der Poel? Another to suffer a mechanical when in a decent position – you can’t right him off but surely won’t quite be fast enough on this pure sprinters’ finish.

Let’s be honest, as with many flat stages, there’s not a huge amount of value here. But it would be good for the race if the spoils were shared and I’m still sure he’s the fastest so we’ll go for a tentative, small stake selection on Ewan again.

Stage 6 Bets

Caleb Ewan 2pts win @2/1

Posted 21.34 BST Wed 11th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker