Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 6 – La Vall d’Uixó > Pico del Buitre. Observation Astrofísico de Javalambre (183.5km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Kaden Groves (EvsF)

2nd Filippo Ganna (200/1)

3rd Dries Van Gestel (100/1)

4th Alberto Dainese (8/1)

Stage 5 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Van den Berg was knocked back when Dainese moved out for room then got blocked, and so for a second day running didn’t get the chance to properly unleash a sprint. However, the hectic final, which included a few falls, meant he won’t have been the only one with a hard luck story.

Stage 6 Preview

The second mountain day of the Vuelta and a summit finish used in 2019 which was won by Ángel Madrazo from a breakaway … just. For context, the severe gradients of the ride to Javalambre – 10.9km at 8% but averaging around 10% for the final 5km – meant the break shipped 4mins in the last 4km and close to 9mins from the bottom that day.

The finish in Andorra was cagey, partly due to the headwind, and didn’t really give us a sense of where people are in terms of form – this should make the picture a lot clearer. No team may be willing to ride, which gives the break a big chance of staying away but, as stated, they’ll need to decent head start to stay away.

Stage 6 Contenders

Remco Evenepoel (8/1) stated that he’s happy to give the leader’s jersey away so, if he’s to be believed, Soudal Quick-Step won’t drive a hard pace all day to keep the break in check. Given the gradients at the top of the final climb, however, it could still be caught almost incidentally in which case Evenepoel would be a strong favourite to take his second win based on his form on stage 3.

Jonas Vingegaard (12/1) was sprightly in that finish behind Evenepoel but admitted afterwards that he’s not at his best. The two-time Tour de France champion is the best climber in the world but riders who have trained to hit their peak now may still be just ahead of him over a tough climb like this.

Primož Roglič (14/1) was still sore from his tumble on stage 2 and didn’t perform as we know he can in Andorra. In the circumstances, his fourth-place finish was a good effort and after two days more recovery, he may be looking to show himself a bit more here. Roglič’s price looks big considering his pedigree – but how’s he feeling?

Juan Ayuso (16/1) has impressed so far and appears to have the backing as UAE Team Emirates GC leader ahead of João Almeida. It would be a surprise not to see him in the mix or even take the win in an area where he spent most of his childhood.

Enric Mas (25/1) sits second on GC, 11secs behind Evenepoel, and hasn’t put a foot wrong up to now. He tends to be quite defensive but may be tempted to put in a dig if the feelings are good.

After Evenepoel’s public announcement that he’d prefer to hand over the red jersey, UAE Team Emirates manager, Joxean Fernandez Matxin, suggested that up to 100 riders might fancy getting up the road – so it’s a bit of a breakaway lottery. Here are a few who are fancied and those at a price for the stage picks:

Lennard Kämna (10/1) was excellent on stage 3 and looked the stage winner for a while. Despite having two riders in GC contention, Aleksandr Vlasov and Cian Uijtdebroeks, Bora-Hansgrohe are likely to give the German licence to get up the road, knowing that he tends to be absolute mustard when there.

Michael Storer (11/1) hasn’t really discovered his form which saw him win two stages at the Vuelta in 2021 but had sprinklings of decent finishes coming into this. He’s already lost a lot of time due to crashes, however, which is off-putting.

Romain Bardet (11/1) either came down in a crash or suffered a mechanical on stage 5 depending on sources and lost time that should give him freedom to get up the road. If he does, he’ll be hard to beat.

Einer Rubio (33/1) won for us at big odds in the Giro d’Italia and comes in with good form from the Vuelta a Burgos. Will he be given a pass up the road given his team leader, Enric Mas, is very much a GC favourite? On the other hand, with Rubio only 3mins behind on GC himself, Movistar may see this as a great opportunity to take the leader’s jersey they so narrowly missed on stage 1.

Javier Romo (66/1) also showed well at the Vuelta a Burgos, winning the young rider classification and staying close to some elite riders. He was second-to-last man standing from the break on the stage up to Montjuic which was an impressive way to get involved on your Grand Tour debut.  

Jonathan Caicedo (150/1) is another who had good legs in Burgos and the former Giro d’Italia stage winner may give us a run for our money at big odds.

The scales are tipped towards a breakaway win, but let’s have a GC saver just in case it comes back together.

Stage 6 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @10/1

Einer Rubio 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Javier Romo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jonathan Caicedo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @150/1

Primož Roglič 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Posted 21:32 BST Wed 30th August 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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