Tour de France 2023

Stage 6 – Tarbes > Cauterets-Cambasque (144.8km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Jai Hindley (40/1)

2nd Giulio Ciccone (33/1)

3rd Felix Gall (33/1)

4th Emanuel Buchmann (250/1)

5th Jonas Vingegaard (12/1)

Stage 5 Bets

Adam Yates 0.5pts each way (5 places) @28/1

Giulio Ciccone 0.5pts each way (5 places) @33/1 – 2nd

Neilson Powless 0.5pts each way (5 places) @20/1

A mega-break with GC players wasn’t quite how it was envisaged but a decent place and three caps awarded. Chapeau to Hindley – that’s really shaken up the outright market with Vingegaard now strong odds-on favourite and Pogačar as big as 9/2 to win this year’s Tour de France.

Stage 6 Preview

The second mountain stage in the Pyrenees – can it serve up as much drama as the first? Unlike stage 5, after just 25km, we have a classified climb – the third-category Côte de Capvern-les-Bains (5.6km at 4.8%) – which should, in theory, make it easier for a break to form. Then there’s the first-category Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and hors-categorie Col du Tourmalet (17/1km at 7.3%) double.

The Tourmalet is a brute with a second half averaging 9% plus, but it peaks almost 50km from the line, which is a long way to ride without domestiques if you’ve blown the race apart. The climb to Cauterets-Cambasque (15.9km at 5.4%) for the stage finish is long but with relatively shallow gradients. It does get tough near the top however, averaging double-digits inside the last 4km where damage can be done before an easing towards the line.

Stage 6 Contenders

GC or breakaway win? As always, that depends on the talent up front and the tactics behind. It’s a summit finish which usually tips the scales in favour of the GC men, but it’s not the hardest climb – that’s obviously the Tourmalet which is unlikely to be ridden flat out. Playing both scenarios will be required.

Caught out by the huge breakaway, UAE Team Emirates were put in the gutter on stage 5 with a hard chase all day leaving them exposed when it kicked off on Marie Blanque. Having missed a lot of training due to his wrist injury, Tadej Pogačar showed that he’s a level below his very best. But the race isn’t done – plenty can change between now and Paris. We’ve only had five stages!

For all Pogačar was below par, Jonas Vingegaard was in a different league and now knows he can gap Pogačar at their current levels. Jumbo-Visma will be eager to hammer home their advantage and are sure to set up another attack. They’ll most likely set a hard but not infernal pace on the Tourmalet to fatigue their rivals, expose any weaknesses and drop some domestiques before a skirmish in the final 4km up to Cauterets. Vingegaard put a minute into Pogačar in the 4km on Marie Blanque and although this isn’t as hard as that, significant time could still be put into his rivals. If it all comes back together, Vingegaard is the likeliest winner but is short at a best price of 2/1.

What a performance by the new yellow jersey wearer Jai Hindley. Brave too, as he could’ve expended too much energy in the break, been rolled over by the GC group on the final climb and ended up losing time. Bora-Hansgrohe will look to control and will be happy to see a breakaway take the day as well as the bonus seconds on the line. Hindley is 20/1 for a repeat win which seems unlikely against Vingegaard, but you never know.

Mattias Skjelmose paced his effort well on Marie Blanque, making it back amongst the favourites having been one of the first to be distanced when Jumbo-Visma stepped up the pace. He ended up sprinting for sixth on the stage and Lidl-Trek now, after Giulio Ciccone’s excellent second, have two riders in the GC top 10. For now, his Tour de Suisse form is holding and is 25/1 to win here on a finish that suits.

To win from the break you’ll need to be an exceptional climber, obviously, but also at least 5mins off GC in order to have licence to get up the road. Neilson Powless didn’t make the break on stage 5 due to the flat start but, assuming his level is still high, should be able to make this one and has a chance of reclaiming the polka dot jersey. How much energy has he already expended though? Powless is a big-looking 40/1 for stage victory.

The new mountains jersey wearer, Felix Gall, looked super strong when he attacked on the Col de Soudat and then again with Hindley on Marie Blanque. He’ll want to get up the road to defend that jersey and assuming those efforts haven’t taken too much out of him, has a great chance of a stage win at 16/1. He didn’t show great descending skills on stage 5, so the summit finish is good for him.

At just 4mins 40secs down, Thibaut Pinot is on the bubble of those who’ll be allowed to go up the road. But, although he still looks in decent shape after the Giro d’Italia, doesn’t look a serious threat to the favourites and therefore could be given licence. After so many disappointments at the Tour de France, how about a dream finale for Pinot at 25/1?

Dani Martinez looked better on stage 5, almost holding on to the group with Ciccone. He’s still over 16mins down on GC and so has plenty of leeway to give it another go. However, the 33/1 doesn’t seem like great value.

At the much bigger price of 125/1, teammate Jonathan Castroviejo is in great nick and, according to Ineos Grenadiers’ directeur sportif Steve Cummings, will be given his chances in stages that suit. This is very much on the outer regions of what is possible for Castroviejo but he’s a much-underestimated climber and is worth a small interest.

Stage 6 Bets

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Felix Gall 1pt win @14/1

Thibaut Pinot 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Neilson Powless 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Posted 22.46 BST 5th July 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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