Tour de France 2024
Stage 6 – Mâcon > Dijon
Thu 4th July | Scheduled start: 13:35 CET
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Stage 6 Preview
Where: Continuing north through the Burgundy region of eastern France.
Stage Type: Flat.
Weather: Similar to stage 5 – low twenties with a chance of rain. A bit of wind so everyone will have to be vigilant and ensure they don’t get caught behind a split.
Climbs: A fourth category at the start, then flat all the way.
Start: That small climb may encourage a few more to get up the road but it should be well policed.
Finish: Positioning at 3km will be crucial for a sweeping right-hander with plenty of road furniture before a tight left-right jink. This takes the riders onto a wide tree-lined boulevard and 1.5km of road before the line. A big roundabout with 500m to go will slow the riders down before the sprints are launched.
Stage suits: Sprinters.
Breakaway chances: Very low again – there are so many sprint teams looking to get something out of the race that any breakaway looks doomed.
What will happen?: A small break is well policed and it all comes back for a bunch finish. Could be some echelon action but more than likely not.
Stage 6 Contenders
Jasper Philipsen (6/4; 2.5) looked fine after his fall earlier in the week with a good second on stage 5. Alpecin-Deceuninck did great work to deliver him perfectly having lost their place inside the final 4km. Mathieu van der Poel got a little squeezed and wasn’t able to launch him through a gap and he ultimately ran out of road. Encouraging signs after their troubles on stage 3, though.
Mark Cavendish (5/2; 3.5) rode the wheels and found the gaps that others couldn’t for a history-making 35th Tour stage win. Others are more powerful with a higher top-end speed, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Price has been slashed as a result.
Arnaud De Lie (8/1; 9.0) was in an excellent position with 2km to go and had three Lotto Dstny men ahead of him but got squeezed out and didn’t find the gaps to challenge for the win. Still showed good pace to finish fourth. Should we keep the faith?
Dylan Groenewegen (11/1; 12.0) tried to get a run on both sides of the road but it just didn’t open up. How often can you put it down to bad luck? Drifting to a backable price though.
Mads Pedersen (20/1; 21.0) crashed hard against the barriers with about 50m to go. Finished the stage but suffered severe abrasions. Hopefully nothing is broken and he can continue his fight for the green jersey, but is best left alone for this.
Biniam Girmay (20/1; 21.0) tagged onto the Alpecin train in the last 2km and came from a long way back to make the top 10. Appears to be riding solo and leaving the leadout for Gerben Thijssen (40/1; 41.0) who had his speed knocked off by a retreating Marijn van den Berg and finished eighth.
Wout van Aert (28/1; 29.0) didn’t get involved in the sprint and can’t be backed on that front alone, though the price is getting more attractive. Potential leadout man Christophe Laporte also took a tumble.
Alexander Kristoff (28/1; 29.0) crashed with 28km to go but clearly the adrenalin kicked in and he sprinted for third, despite not having the injured Søren Wærenskjold to help in the leadout. Might be a bit sore in the morning though and is best left alone here.
Fernando Gaviria (33/1; 34.0) was in a good position behind Cavendish but appeared to suffer a mechanical and faded outside the top 10. Is getting involved which is encouraging.
Fabio Jakobsen (33/1; 34.0) took the inside line and came a very respectable fifth which should give him more confidence after a difficult start.
Phil Bauhaus (50/1; 51.0) dropped his chain with 50m to go but didn’t look like making the frame.
Pascal Ackermann (50/1; 51.0) had a great position but launched too early and in the end did a great leadout for Cavendish. Can take heart that he was in the mix though.
Sam Bennett (66/1; 67.0) drifted left which caused Pedersen’s crash though can’t really be blamed. Didn’t get a blow in so difficult to assess his level though the price is big considering his pedigree.
Stage 6 Bets
With so many fast men at this year’s Tour de France, the two sprints so far have been messy and complicated with plenty of hard luck stories which makes it difficult to ascertain the true hierarchy in current form and speed. On paper, this one should be less chaotic and give us a better idea.
Dylan Groenewegen has drifted to a backable price, but his bad positioning is a worry. Jasper Philipsen almost got there but isn’t showing the dominance of last year yet and the price is unattractive. So let’s stay loyal to the Belgian champion, Arnaud De Lie who, to be fair, hasn’t done a huge amount wrong. Let’s just hope for a clear run.
Arnaud De Lie 1pt each way (3 places) @8/1
Posted 22:38 BST Wed 3rd July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 6 Result
1st Dylan Groenewegen (11/1)
2nd Biniam Girmay (20/1)
3rd Fernando Gaviria (33/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
