Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 7 – Utiel > Oliva (201km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Sepp Kuss (50/1)

2nd Lenny Martínez (80/1)

3rd Romain Bardet (7/1)

4th Mikel Landa (80/1)

Stage 6 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @10/1

Einer Rubio 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1 – 7th

Javier Romo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jonathan Caicedo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @150/1

Primož Roglič 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

What a shame we didn’t have TV coverage from KM0 – that would’ve been fun to watch. Far too many genuine top 10 GC contenders, or maybe even higher, were allowed up the road which made it impossible for breakaway weapons like Kämna and Rubio to take the day. Romo was in there too but pulling for De la Cruz. Frustratingly, Roglič won the GC battle behind, but 3mins behind his teammate Kuss.

Stage 7 Preview

One of only two stages over 200km long which, on paper, looks a nailed-on sprint. After a slightly lumpy opening, the second half of the stage south along the coast from Valencia is almost entirely flat, though does offer the threat of crosswinds.

The final is quite technical with a sharp left-hander with 350m to go and then a narrowing over a mini roundabout inside the last 200m, so good positioning will be vital.

Stage 7 Contenders

Kaden Groves (4/6; 1.66) has two stage wins and is the strong favourite to take a third. Alpecin-Deceuninck are working really well together but again will be leant upon for most of the day. They’ll need to make sure only a small group gets clear otherwise it’ll be a drain on resources to keep them in check.

Alberto Dainese (8/1; 9.00) was at least able to unleash a sprint on stage 5 but started a bit far back and could only manage fourth. He said he didn’t quite have the legs on stage 4 and finished dead last on stage 6 without any teammates around him. This flat finish is in his favour as he does have a higher top-end speed than most of his rivals, but there are too many doubts over his form.

Juan Sebastián Molano (9/1; 10.00) damaged his wrist in the big roundabout fall 3km out from the finish on stage 5. He showed good legs on stage 4, but has he recovered enough to challenge?

Filippo Ganna (7/1; 8.00) was given the green light to go for the sprint on stage 5 and almost pulled it off with an excellent second. Given Ineos’ struggles on GC, he may be given licence again but that isn’t certain which is off-putting from a betting point of view.

Marijn van den Berg (12/1; 13.00) got shuffled back before the last bend and couldn’t get up to the front in the messy last kilometre of stage 5. He has good speed though and will be motivated to put right the disappointments of his first two sprint opportunities. Are we going to follow the young Dutchman over the cliff?

Milan Menten (40/1; 41.00) also came down in the crash that involved Molano and appeared to be hobbling – best avoided.

Dries Van Gestel (33/1; 34.00) has produced two excellent results in the sprints so far – a fifth into Tarragona followed by third in Burriana. Though clearly fast, Van Gestel is more of a Classics specialist, so the relatively easy day and flat finish are not in the Belgian’s favour.

Edward Theuns (20/1; 21.00) was left frustrated when he was pushed/elbowed/butted out of position by Van Gestel when sitting in a nice position on stage 5. The legs are clearly there but does he have the speed to win?

With Groves at an unbackable price, we can’t abandon Marijn van den Berg now. Hopefully, he gets a bit of luck in running and shows us what he can do.

Stage 7 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1

Posted 21:09 BST Thu 31st August 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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