Stage 7 – Diamante > Potenza (196km)

Profile

Stage 6 Result

1st Arnaud DÉMARE (11/2)

2nd Caleb EWAN (2/1F)

3rd Mark CAVENDISH (9/4)

Stage 6 Bets

Caleb Ewan 2pts win @2/1 – 2nd

Chapeau-meter

You can’t get much closer than that! It looked a dead-heat on TV but clearly the photo finish was able to separate the front two by what must have been millimetres. Wisely, Ewan decided to hitch a ride on the Quick-Step train inside the last 2km, following the wheel of Cavendish, but for once things didn’t quite go to plan for the men in blue and both had to fight to get to the front – energy expended that cost Ewan the win. Surely his luck will turn before this Giro is out. Interestingly, Vendrame – a 500/1 sprint pick a few days ago – was in the mix for the first time and finished seventh.

Stage 7 Preview

It’s up and down all day for the near 200km route north towards Napoli in what looks a brute of a day. Leaving Diamante (and whoever wins this will need the proverbial diamonds in their legs), they’ll take in four categorised climbs but plenty more sharp unclassified ones which will expose anyone on an off-day.

The toughest climb is the second-category Montagne Grande di Viggiano – 6.6km at an average of 9.1%, maxing out at 15% near the top. Though still 60km from the finish, it ought to be decisive in identifying who’s likely to take the day. The run-in is also tough with the road pitching up to 13% inside the last kilometre, so let’s hope a marauding GC battle isn’t closing down on a lone breakaway rider as it could be heartbreak.

Contenders

Nothing is certain, but this looks like the first of two nailed-on breakaway days. With a GC dust-up likely on Sunday and the classic sharks-teeth profile, many riders will have earmarked this one in the roadbook to try and get up the road. So it may take a while for the break to form and it’ll be difficult to police the moves.  

Alpecin-Fenix appeared to have a day off on stage 6, electing not to set up a sprint for Mathieu van der Poel. That indicates that he has his eyes on making a breakaway either here or on stage 8. The bookies have him a 10/1 favourite for this but the profile for the stage in and out of Napoli on Saturday looks much more up his street. 

Given the profile and the nature of the climbs, we’re looking for strong climbers but not necessarily mountain goats who, crucially, have a bit of time on GC and a team pass to go up the road. Magnus Cort Nielson ticks all those boxes – he came into the Giro lacking miles in his legs but showed no signs of rustiness on stage 1 to finish fourth. This is much more his bag and it would be a surprise if he didn’t try to get up the road. EF have another option in Simon Carr should Cort miss out, but I think the Dane has to be in the staking plan.

He put in a shift today, driving the Quick-Step train for kilometre after kilometre, but presuming that hasn’t taken too much out of him it could be Mauro Schimd time. The stage looks made for him and now he’s lost time on GC should be allowed in the break. Unfortunately, the juicy 66s about him on earlier stages are gone with 16/1 generally available about the Swiss youngster.

This stage is complicated for Trek-Segafredo – they’re holding the maglia rosa with Juan Pedro López and so must try to defend it by marshalling any threats going in the early break. But López is still likely to be attacked at some point by the likes of Lennard Kämna and Rein Taaramäe who are just behind him on GC. What’s more they also have to protect their team leader Giulio Ciccone. That’s a handful but they could take some pressure off by putting someone up the road themselves – namely Bauke Mollema or Mattias Skjelmose Jensen. Both are within around 5mins on GC and potentially could jump into pink themselves. Unsurprisingly given his palmarès, the Dutchman is the shorter at around 20s to Skjelmose’s 66s.

Biniam Girmay has made headlines for his performances earlier this season and in the Giro, but another young Eritrean has also been making waves. Natnael Tesfatsion is a genuine all-rounder – a climber with a quick finish who is sure to try for the break here. He opened at twice the price so the value has gone somewhat but is still worth a small interest at 40/1.

Should it come back together we have to look at the quick finishers Pello Bilbao, João Almeida and Richard Carapaz. They’re all around 33s but I don’t think the GC boys will be fighting for the win, which is an assumption I’ll most likely regret.

Stage 7 Bets

Magnus Cort Nielson 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Mauro Schimd 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Posted 22.28 BST Thu 12th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker