Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 8 – Úbeda > Cazorla (159km)
Sat 24th Aug | KM0: 13:49 CET
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Stage 8 Preview
Where: A looping course traversing some of the lower mountains in the province of Jaén in Andalusia.
Stage Type: Medium mountain.
Weather: No real let-up with the heat though it is Andalusia in August – mid 30˚Cs again.
Climbs: The second-category Puerto Mirador de las Palomas (7.3km at 5.7%) about 60km from home and a summit finish up the third-category Sierra de Cazorla (4.8km at 7.1%).
Start: Rolling with some small unclassified bumps.
Finish: The Sierra de Cazorla climb has a modest overall average however has double-digit sections (including one that touches 20%) at the start and for the final kilometre to the line.
Stage suits: Puncheurs and climbers with time on GC if the breakaway prevails. GC favourites who excel on steep gradients if it comes back together.
Breakaway chances: Very good – differences can be made between the GC men on the final climb but it doesn’t necessarily have to be for the stage win. If there’s no GC threat in the break, then it should be allowed to contest the win, leaving teams to save their troops a bit for the bigger day on Sunday.
What will happen?: Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will have to police the early moves and, knowing that the break has a good chance of winning the stage, it could take a while which will test their resources. Will another team take it up to set up a stage win? Maybe, though it depends on the make-up of the front group. More likely we get two races in one – a stage win for the breakaway and a dust-up between the GC men on the final climb behind.
Stage 8 Contenders
Primož Roglič (5/2; 3.5) has won plenty of summit finishes like this but will Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe ride? Sunday is a bigger mountain day and they may choose to save their men. They will attack the final climb, however, and he should take some time off Ben O’Connor at the top of the standings. Whether that will also be for the stage win is questionable and makes the price unappealing.
Lennart Van Eetvelt (5/1; 6.0) should’ve beaten Roglič on stage 4 (and landed a much-needed stage pick for us) but it was following Mikel Landa rather than the early celebration that cost him – Roglič was getting past whether his arm went up or not. No doubt he was also conscious of getting the inside line round the bend, which he got, so it’s easy to criticise in hindsight. Has the chance to put it right here but will Lotto Dtsny ride if no-one else does?
Enric Mas (25/1) is looking in good form and will probably make the frame but would be nice if he attacked at least once.
Sepp Kuss (25/1) was man of the match in setting up Wout van Aert’s win on stage 6, pulling great turns to neutralise the attacks of UAE Team Emirates. The steep gradients are to his liking and, after disappointing a bit in the first stages of the race, may now come into his own.
Michael Woods (18/1) suffered an untimely mechanical before the final climb on stage 4 but comes in on good form and finished in the front group on stage 7. Now 9mins 46secs behind O’Connor (so 5mins behind Roglič) he should get some licence to try for the breakaway though the flat start isn’t ideal. The high gradients suit and Israel Premier Tech are flying.
Matthew Riccitello (25/1) sadly slipped out of GC contention after a crash on stage 6 but otherwise would have big chances. How hurt is he? It’s unclear but probably best left out on that basis.
Dylan Teuns (40/1) won La Flèche Wallonne two years ago so knows a wall finish like this and is an excellent third option for IPT.
Isaac del Toro (66/1) and Adam Yates (66/1) are options for UAE Team Emirates though both should be marked as GC threats and not allowed up the road. Del Toro, however, isn’t without a chance amongst the GC men anyway. Yates came down on stage 6 and despite finishing with the front group on stage 7 is probably best left for now.
Brandon McNulty (66/1) and Marc Soler (50/1) could try to get up the road for UAE but both will have domestique work to do on Sunday so may be denied the option. McNulty especially is good on stiff gradients.
Jhonatan Narváez (40/1) was unable to stay with the front group and contest the sprint on stage 7, perhaps still suffering a bit from his heavy fall on stage 2 or just lacking in legs. The final climb suits his punchy style, but do we go in on him again after that disappointment?
Max Poole (33/1) went down heavily in the same fall as Narváez on stage 2 which was a shame as he came into the race after finishing an excellent second in the Vuelta a Burgos. Appears to have fought his way back though and sneaked inside the top 10 on stage 7. Is now 9mins down on O’Connor – would he try to get into the break?
Mathias Vacek (80/1) showed his climbing skills on stage 7, staying with the front group and finishing runner-up for the second time this Vuelta. Has the power to make the break on the rolling start too.
Mattias Skjelmose (100/1) lost time on stage 4 but that was a very atypical climb in steaming temperatures. Ordinarily this climb should suit the Dane.
Mauro Schmid (150/1) was hanging off the back again on stage 7. Saving himself for this surely and looks a big price. Teammate Filippo Zana (100/1) looks big too and could hitch onto Schmid to get up the road.
Mauri Vansevenant (125/1) can flatter to deceive at times but in theory this is good for him at a big price.
Stage 8 Bets
His price has collapsed a bit since starting this so plenty thinking along the same lines, but I think it’s ‘Rusty Woods’ time!
Let’s have Mattias Skjelmose in too as a GC saver at a big price should it come back together plus a few more breakaway options.
Michael Woods 2pts each way (3 places) @18/1
Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Dylan Teuns 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1
Brandon McNulty 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1
Mattias Skjelmose 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1
Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (4 places) @125/1
Posted 21:35 BST Fri 23rd Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 8 Result
1st Primož Roglič (5/2F)
2nd Enric Mas (12/1)
3rd Mikel Landa (33/1)
4th Antonio Tiberi (66/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
