Stage 8 – Napoli > Napoli (153km)

Profile

Stage 7 Result

1st Koen BOUWMAN (25/1)

2nd Bauke MOLLEMA (20/1)

3rd Davide FORMOLO (20/1)

4th Tom DUMOULIN (40/1)

Stage 7 Bets

Magnus Cort Nielson 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Mauro Schimd 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 2nd

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Chapeau-meter

What a stage! Hit the post with Mollema – and that’s our third second place in the last six stages so hopefully that trend doesn’t continue. But chapeau to Bouwman who finished it off well – he had a bit more zip left after a brutal day. Both Schmid and Tesfatsion were in embryonic breaks that didn’t stay clear, Cort had teammates up the road and perhaps was saving himself for Saturday and Skjelmose Jensen appeared to be man-marking Lennard Kämna to keep López in pink.

Stage 8 Preview

A short stage of 153km in and around the streets of Napoli make it unusual for a Grand Tour and one that GC contenders will be wary of. The profile has an undulating classics feel to it and the roads are tight and technical, meaning an accident or ambush could be waiting around every corner.  

The road goes up for 5km from the gun which could help the breakaway to form but much will depend on how teams for the day’s favourites want to play it – chase or get up the road. There are numerous launchpads for attacks inside the last 50km, including the fourth-category Monte di Procida (2.1km at 6.0%, max. 11%), so either way it’s going to be a tricky one to control.

Contenders

This is a random one and it’s difficult to say with any confidence exactly how it’s going to unfold. The profile clearly points towards one-day-type riders – those that can punch over climbs, are wily enough to make the right splits and can finish it off with a sprint. The biggest question for teams with fancies is – what is the best way to win it? Will it be better to send your man into the break or control the numbers up front and chase it down? Both have risks, especially if there’s no consensus between teams.

After his ‘rest’ on stage 6 Mathieu van der Poel will surely have earmarked this stage in the roadbook. He tried a few times to make the break on stage 7 but that always looked a bit too much of a climbing test for the Dutchman. These shorter, punchier climbs are much more to his liking. Unfortunately, the 5/2 about him is no value at all given the potentially chaotic nature of the stage. 

Ditto the above for Intermarche’s Biniam Girmay. He showed earlier in the season with his win at Gent-Wevelgem that the tougher, the better for the Eritrean. As it would be tricky to say who’d be quicker on the line between Girmay and Van der Poel after such a race, the 6/1 about him is a bit more value. 

Prices suggest that the purer sprinters are not without a chance with Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Démare all near the top of the market. That would doubly suggest that some teams are looking to control the race and reel in the break to set up a sprint. Good luck to them and chapeau if they can pull it off, but it seems unlikely. A better tactic might be to get those guys up the road to start with.

EF’s Magnus Cort Nielsen was able to take a bit of a back seat on stage 7 as he always seemed to have teammates up the road. And maybe he feels better suited to this parcours too. Quick-Step will want someone in the break or at the front of affairs when attacks start flying and Davide Ballerini showed he’s in top form with his fourth on stage 4 and excellent leadout the day before. He’s a man to keep onside and is probably overdue a Grand Tour stage win. 

After a very impressive classics season, Ineos may also wish to animate the race and give some riders a breakaway pass for the day. Jhonatan Narvaez is probably the most likely option but Ben Tulett and Ben Swift are also riding really well. They’re all decent prices – 66/1, 100/1, and 200/1 respectively but you can’t back them all so British road race champion Swift gets the nod for a small interest. Some late news for Ineos was that Jonathon Castroviejo suffered a heavy fall in stage 7 so that might temper their plans here as they look to have fresh troops for the big GC stage on Sunday.

We’re going in again. This happened last year and ended up missing the stage he won. So Andrea Vendrame at a very decent looking 33/1 is in. But to prove the therapy is working, I’m leaving Mauro Schmid out (he’ll be back in later). And we’ll give Natnael Tesfatsion another go. He was very active on stage 7 but just didn’t make the right split. Hopefully, he’ll have better luck this time.

Stage 8 Bets

Magnus Cort Nielsen 1pt win @14/1 

Davide Ballerini 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1 

Andrea Vendrame 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Ben Swift 0.5pts each way (4 places) @200/1

Posted 21.40 BST Friday 13th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker