Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 8 – Dénia > Xorret de Catí. Costa Blanca Interior (165km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Geoffrey Soupe (250/1)

2nd Orlius Aular (300/1)

3rd Edward Theuns (20/1)

Stage 7 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1 – 6th

A very hectic final and a crazy result – well done if you got that forecast! EF did a better job for Van den Berg who didn’t have great luck in running, hampered by the final Alpecin leadout rider when unleashing his sprint, but he probably wasn’t winning anyway. Not sure we can take much out of that – hopefully Arensman is ok.

Stage 8 Preview

Back in the mountains and five categorised climbs packed into 165km. The first four are relatively shallow though damage could still be done if the pace is hot. But it’s all about the final climb, Xorret de Catí – a wall at 3.9km and an average gradient of 11.4% but with some sections over 20%.

Crucially, this isn’t a summit finish – there’s 2km of descent before rising again to the line. So, if you manage to hang tough on the climb then you can still win the stage in a sprint, as Julian Alaphilippe did in 2017.

The first 20km are flat so we may have to wait until the road rises into the second-category Alto de Vall d’Ebo (7.9km at 5.7%) for the break to form, in which case it should be packed with good climbers.

Stage 8 Contenders

A sawtooth profile would ordinarily point towards a breakaway win but this one isn’t clear. Jumbo-Visma may be inclined to exploit the weakness shown by Soudal Quick-Step on stage 6 and isolate Remco Evenepoel as early as possible. Also, despite it being a summit finish, Sunday’s stage probably offers less terrain to do GC damage so the Dutch team may look to get maximum benefit from this one, in which case, a hard pace early from behind may scupper the break’s chances.

Primož Roglic (11/2; 6.50) jumped from the GC group up to Javalambre and looked somewhere near his best. Others closed near the top and he maybe was suffering, but Roglič is good on stiff inclines and has that killer sprint which makes him favourite should it come back together.

Jonas Vingegaard (14/1; 10.00) can be used in a 1-2 attack (or maybe even a 1-2-3 with Sepp Kuss) which will put a huge amount of pressure on rivals. A pain face we rarely see on stage 6 suggests his form is still building, but he could easily skip away and win this leaving Roglič and Kuss to mark moves behind.

Remco Evenepoel (16/1; 17.00) showed cracks on stage 6, at one stage looking like his Vuelta was blowing up in front of him, but he did well to limit his losses and is still very much in the GC hunt. Has he come in too hot and his form now on the downturn? Is he a little sick or injured, or was it just an off day? These severe gradients are good for his punchy style and seems to be able to match Roglič on the line – the price might look big by the end of the day.

Juan Ayuso (16/1; 17.00) was dropped by Roglič’s initial burst but fought back well to finish just 7secs behind the Slovenian. Again, it would be a surprise if Ayuso wasn’t in the GC mix but a win seems a stretch given there are others faster in the sprint.

Selected breakaway candidates:

Romain Bardet (8/1; 9.00) went down in the big crash inside the last 5km though didn’t appear too badly hurt. He’d be a big favourite to take the win from a break as he’s effectively a GC man who’s stage hunting, but the tumble is off-putting at such a short price.

Lennard Kämna (16/1; 13.00) fell away tamely from the break on stage 6 which was a surprise. It’s possible that he knew a win would be tough given the calibre of riders in the group and decided to save his legs. It’s difficult to imagine he’s lost the form he showed in Andorra so still has to be a major player for the stage win.  

Sergio Higuita (14/1; 15.00) has been pretty anonymous this Vuelta though is quality on a good day, excels on steep slopes and packs a good sprint which could be handy here.

Santiago Buitrago (22/1; 23.00) had a nasty crash on stage 4 and still wasn’t 100% going into the last mountain stage, so it was good to see him in the break on stage 6 and put up a good showing. With an extra day’s recovery, he could be challenging for the win.

Damiano Caruso (22/1; 23.00) has plenty of time on GC and showed in Andorra that his legs are decent. If teammate Buitrago is a bit close to the red jersey, Caruso could be Bahrain-Victorious’ card for the stage win.

Einer Rubio (33/1; 34.00) finds himself just 3mins 22secs down on GC after his high finish on stage 6 so, if Groupama-FDJ are doing their marking properly, shouldn’t be allowed up the road. If he is, the Colombian could take his second Grand Tour win of the year.

Oier Lazkano (40/1; 41.00) came into the race in flying form having won the Spanish road title and a stage at the Vuelta a Burgos. He’s favoured more by a hilly/one-day parcours rather than the bigger mountains so this may be pushing his limits.

Javier Romo (80/1; 81.00) ended up working for David de la Cruz in the super-break on stage 6. From a smaller group, Romo, who also came in on super form from Burgos, may find he’s one of the strongest.

Christian Rodríguez (100/1; 101.00) finished an impressive eighth on the stage won by Sepp Kuss. At 4mins off GC, along with Rubio and Buitrago, he’s on the bubble of who should be allowed in the break, but the price looks big.

It’s in the balance, so let’s play both scenarios with these boys:

Stage 8 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Christian Rodríguez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Posted 21:39 BST Friday 1st September

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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