Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 9 – Cartagena > Collado de la Cruz Caravaca (184.5km)

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Stage 8 Result

1st Primož Roglič (6/1F)

2nd Remco Evenepoel (16/1)

3rd Juan Ayuso (16/1)

4th Enric Mas (80/1)

Stage 8 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1 – 5th

Lennard Kämna 1pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Damiano Caruso 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Christian Rodríguez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Caruso and Rodríguez made the mega-break and were two of the best out of it but, as suspected, Jumbo-Visma wanted to make it a hard day to accumulate fatigue and expose any weaknesses amongst their rivals – a move which doomed those out front. Vingegaard was unable to attack off Evenpoel’s strong pace and was never going to beat these guys in a sprint.

Stage 9 Preview

This one is classed as a ‘hilly’ rather than a ‘mountain’ stage and is tame compared to what’s to come in the next two weeks. The final summit climb – the Alto Caravaca de la Cruz – doesn’t appear tough enough for big gaps to be forged between GC rivals so the win is tilted towards the breakaway.

It’s a funny climb – only a second category and averaging just 4.9% but three short downhill sections conceal the true gradients that rise towards 20% near the top.

Riders will know that a breakaway win is more likely than not but the flattish opening may make it difficult for it to form. If it hasn’t already gone, the first-category Puerto Casas de Marina la Perdiz (11.5km at 4.9%) after around 40km will sort it out.

Stage 9 Contenders

With Sepp Kuss now in red, Jumbo-Visma can afford to ride defensively and are strong enough to make sure the right break without any GC threats gets up the road. Once it does, they’ll probably be content if it takes the day.  

If the break forms on the flat before the first climb, which is also expected to be quite windy on some exposed sections, then this could get complicated. We’ll have some rouleurs in the break who may look to break it up before the final climb knowing they stand little to no chance against the better climbers. Should that happen, we could see some big prices make the frame.

Michael Storer (10/1; 11.00) looked strong pacing former red jersey wearer, Lenny Martínez, up the final climb on stage 8. That’s double-edged, however, as it means he would be a serious stage-hunting threat but also vital for Martínez in his bid for a high GC placing on Grand Tour debut. Will he get licence to ride for himself? He could potentially blow the rest away but the price is plenty short enough.

Lennard Kämna (14/1; 15.00) lost 10mins on stage 8 having fared poorly from the break to Javalambre. Is he suffering with illness or injury, instructed to work as a domestique, or maybe just saving his legs for a day like this? Some of the value in his price has gone while writing this, but it’s difficult to dismiss the talented Kämna.

Romain Bardet (14/1; 15.00) said he wasn’t feeling great at the start of stage 8 after being involved in the crash the day before, but he did make the break and is likely to try again here. His comments, however, don’t fill you with confidence.

Santiago Buitrago (14/1; 15.00) appears to be riding into some form after his heavy fall on stage 4. He finished just 1mins 44secs behind the GC leaders on stage 8 and is now 5mins 32secs behind overall – enough to be given some rope up front?

Einer Rubio (16/1; 17.00) has the same problem as his fellow Colombian above, sitting exactly 5mins behind, but he clearly has the form to take a stage from the right group.

Romain Grégoire (25/1; 26.00) is a similar tale to Kämna – impressive on stage 2, but pretty anonymous since. After playing a domestique role for Martínez on stage 8, he might get the chance to ride for himself again here.

Damiano Caruso (33/1; 34.00) was one of the final four out of the break – with Kron, Lazcano and Costa – on stage 8 and probably wasn’t giving it full beans on the last climb knowing it was going to be caught. A longer, more evenly-paced final climb would probably be more in Caruso’s favour, but he does look a bit of stage winner in waiting.

Andreas Kron (50/1; 51.00) is very punchy up a steep slope so this finish could be ideal if he gets into the break. Lotto Dstny are throwing numbers at these breakaways which is always handy to have.

Oier Lazcano (25/1; 26.00) appeared to be struggling at times in the break but ultimately was one of, if not the, strongest. The lack of really high mountains and long climbs is good for him. His price, however, has halved while writing this, which is frustrating.

Christian Rodríguez (66/1; 67.00) made what looked to be the decisive ‘fuga de la fuga’ on stage 8 and then missed the real one. Now sitting at over 6mins on GC, the Arkea man may be allowed up the road again.  

Javier Romo (150/1; 151.00) did the same as Rodríguez – you never know which move will stick. He would likely find a few better than him in the break, but is on good form and the price is big.

Rune Herregodts (80/1; 81.00) was in great form earlier in the season, coming agonisingly close to a stage win at the Critérium de Dauphiné. The Belgian got into the break on stage 3 but didn’t perform as he wanted, he may have found better legs now.

If Jumbo-Visma do decide to make it another hard day, then it’s difficult to look past Primož Roglič (13/2; 7.50) and Remco Evenepoel (8/1; 9.00) who admitted he didn’t realise he was sprinting for the win on stage 8, thinking there were more riders up the road. Both look evenly matched on the short climbs and in the sprint.

You never know, but on balance this one looks like a day for the breakaway. However, who makes up the break will depend on when it goes – on the opening, flat section or on the first climb. That, we don’t know and is near impossible to predict, but it’s probably a good idea to lean towards riders that can handle themselves in tough, one-day like conditions rather than gamble on featherweight climbers who would need the race to split on the climb.

Stage 9 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @14/1

Romain Grégoire 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Oier Lazcano 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Rune Herregodts 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Javier Romo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @150/1

Posted 07:13 BST Sun 3rd August

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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