Stage 1 – Brest > Landerneau (197.8km)

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Preview

We start with four stages in the northwestern region of Brittany. The riders will negotiate multiple smaller categorized climbs and testing uphill finishes on stages 1 and 2, before the pure sprinters get their chance on stages 3 and 4. 

It’s going to be a tough, nervous opener, with tight roads and a furious fight for position onto the final 3km climb which averages 5.7% but touches 14% in places. The forecast at the moment looks to be mainly dry, so fingers crossed we don’t get a repeat of last year’s Grand Départ in Nice where several of the major players hit the deck in treacherous conditions.

Contenders

This is a tricky stage to predict, not just because positioning will be key, but also because so many different types of riders might get in the mix. The final ascent to the line is tough, but perhaps not quite tough enough to shake out some of the sprinters, many of whom have shown excellent climbing form. Conversely, if it gets really selective, some GC men could get involved – their teams will certainly keep them near the front to ensure there are no time gaps and avoid any crashes. Whether a sprinter, puncheur, or GC man, you’ll need to produce a sustained explosive effort to win the day. 

No one has shown more ability over the last couple of years to put down ridiculous power on the bike than Mathieu van der Poel. He’s looking for stage wins in his first Tour before probably leaving the race early to concentrate on the Tokyo Olympics where he plans to compete in the mountain bike event. On his day van der Poel is practically unbeatable and is the rightful favourite at around 9/4. However, at 3km, it’s perhaps a slightly longer climb than ideal for van der Poel; he also left the Tour de Suisse early as a precaution with a little sickness and the price is plenty short enough considering the variables of an opening stage of the Tour. 

Wout van Aert has had a disrupted preparation for this year’s Tour following surgery for appendicitis in May. He was playing down his chances of competing for yellow a few weeks ago and wasn’t sure if he’d be able to compete in the Belgian championships which would’ve been his last chance for a prep race. Of course, he did make the startline for that race last weekend and went and won it. So it’s fair to say his form is on schedule, and he’s been a lot more bullish about his chances in the pre-race press conferences. He’s available at a best price of 6/1.

Van Aert is joint-second favourite alongside the darling of French cycling, “Loulou”, D’Artagnan himself, Julian Alaphilippe. It’s no secret that this year’s parcours has been designed to give Alaphilippe the best chance of taking stage wins and perhaps playing a major part in GC proceedings. Whether that’s going to be possible against the better climbers we’ll have to see, but he certainly has a great chance of finding himself in yellow this weekend. He left the Tour de Suisse early, where he looked in decent nick, to attend the birth of his first child – something that could have both a positive or negative effect on performance, so is best ignored. 

No rider comes into the Tour in better form than the newly crowned Italian national champion Sonny Colbrelli. He, along with many of his Bahrain–Victorious teammates it has to be said, has been sensational all season. But for a couple of misjudged breakaway chases and an opportunistic late attack from Geraint Thomas, he could’ve won four stages at the Critérium du Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever and has an explosive sprint to finish races off. This final third-category climb might be a stretch for him, but at 9/1 he’s looking too good to ignore.   

Both van der Poel and Alaphilippe commented after reconnoitring the stage 1 finish about how much harder it was than they thought. As mentioned, GC contenders will want to be positioned at the front and may find themselves battling for the win in a reduced sprint as the gradient eases near the finish line. This brings our two overall favourites – Primož Roglič and Tadej Pogačar – into the equation.

Interestingly, both decided to shun the traditional warm-up races of the Dauphiné and the Tour de Suisse – in fact Roglič hasn’t raced since Liège-Bastogne-Liège back in April, preferring instead to just train and remain fresh (and avoid crashing as he did in last year’s Dauphiné which almost put him out of the Tour). Pogačar decided to compete in his home tour in Slovenia, which he duly won comfortably. On balance, I think all of the serious GC contenders will be happy with an accident free weekend with no significant time losses and energy saved rather than burned. 

Similarly, some of the other purer sprinters – Caleb Ewan and Arnaud Démare – even though they’ve shown in the past the ability to get over significant lumps, most notably at Milan-Sanremo, will more than likely keep their powder dry for stages 3 and 4.

There are plenty of others though with the right kind of profile to get in the mix – Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Christophe Laporte, Benoît Cosnefroy, Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Alex Aranburu, Richard Carapaz, Marc Hirschi. There are some big names there, and you can easily see them competing for a place or indeed the win. 

But my second pick is going to a punchy climber at a big price – Canadian Michael Woods is coming off the back of excellent results at the Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse after top fives at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and La Flèche Wallonne. By his own admission, his lack of time trialling ability probably rules him out of overall GC contention and so will be looking for stage wins in his build-up to the Olympics which is also a major goal. Those opportunities will mostly come in the second, more mountainous half of the race, but if he finds himself in a good position here, should not be holding back. Woods is in at 50/1.

Stage 1 Bets

Sonny Colbrelli 1pt each way (5 places) @8/1

Michael Woods 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1