Stage 2 – Perros-Guirec > Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan (183.5km)

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Stage 1 Result

1st Julian ALAPHILIPPE (6/1); 2nd Michael MATTHEWS (20/1); 3rd Primož ROGLIČ (20/1)

Recommended:

Sonny Colbrelli 1pt each way (5 places) @8/1

Michael Woods 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. Two sickening crashes – 45km and then 6km out from the finish – affected a lot of riders’ chances in a typically nervous, dramatic opening day of the Tour. There were three DNFs and we imagine at least a couple more DNSs before stage 2, as well as plenty of riders nursing wounds. 

Alaphilippe was imperious and took advantage of great teamwork to attack early on the final climb and nobody had the legs to match him. GC losers on the day were López, O’Connor (1min 49secs); Poels, Porte (2mins 16secs); with Geoghegan Hart (5mins 33secs), Barguil (6mins 7secs), and Woods (8mins 49secs) already out of contention.

Stage 2 Preview

A similar profile to stage 1 – up and down all day with a number of smaller categorized climbs before tackling the stiffer 2km at 6.9% Mûr-de-Bretagne twice. It’s a finish that’s been used a few times in the Tour, most recently in 2018 when Dan Martin was victorious. 

The weather forecast for this weekend was not looking good at all a few days ago, but the most recent forecasts indicate that the peloton might just avoid the worst of it, with the possibility of dry roads and light winds.

Contenders

We’re again looking at the puncheurs who ideally have a decent sprint and weren’t, as far as we can discern, affected too badly by the horrible crashes on stage 1.

After his fantastic performance, Julian Alaphilippe has been installed as a strong favourite for the win up Mûr-de-Bretagne. Not to take anything away from an amazing win, he profited from great teamwork from the “Wolfpack”, plenty of luck to avoid the pile-ups, and a well-timed attack to take the spoils. Plenty of others weren’t so lucky. He clearly went very deep and it was an emotional win. Can he follow that up for two in a row? Possibly, but he’s a no-bet at such a skinny price. 

Mathieu van der Poel got himself a little out of position leading into the final climb and missed Alaphilippe’s wheel when he attacked, then didn’t quite have the legs to catch him. It wasn’t the dominant display we’ve come to expect from him, but it wasn’t a bad performance, and if he can stay closer to the Frenchman when they hit the tough lower slopes of the Mûr, has the sprint to finish it off. 

Primož Roglič showed no signs of rustiness in his first race for over two months, finishing an impressive third, and may again find himself at the pointy end towards the line here. Jumbo–Visma were heavily affected by the first crash where most of the team seemed to follow Tony Martin to the ground. We’ll have to see how that affects their ability to position Roglič, but he, rather than Wout van Aert, is probably the better bet for the win here and is available at around 7/1. Van Aert himself was caught up in the first crash on stage 1 and had to expend a lot of energy to get back on. Similar to van der Poel, he then didn’t quite have the legs to catch Alaphilippe. 

Both Roglič and Tadej Pogačar appeared to mark each other in the final – had they both pushed on, they could’ve gapped other GC contenders or even gone for the stage win. But it’s early days and the time gaps would no doubt have been small – a little energy saved will be welcome by Paris. Pogačar’s UAE–Team Emirates were definitely affected by the crashes – Mikkel Bjerg, Brandon McNulty, and especially Marc Hirschi appeared to be seriously suffering. 

Stage 1 pick Michael Woods was also caught up in the spills and lost almost 9mins. That puts his GC ambitions to bed early, leaving stage wins as the main focus. This final suits his characteristics but he may need a few more days to recover from what he described as “scrapes”. If “Rusty” needs some advice on when to attack on the Mûr-de-Bretagne, then he could do worse than ask his Israel–Start-up Nation teammate Dan Martin – the winner here in 2018 and runner-up in 2015. Martin himself was mainly hanging around the back of the peloton in stage 1, perhaps riding himself back in after his exploits in the Giro. These two are 20/1 and 33/1 respectively for a win here. 

The man who finished second to Martin that day was Pierre Latour, and it was the former Tour white jersey winner who got closest to latching onto Alaphilippe’s wheel up the Côte de la Fosse. He was able to keep the chasing pack at bay for a long way up that climb and clearly has good legs – he’s an each way selection at 25/1.

Although a shorter climb than the finish on stage 1, it’s tougher for longer at the beginning. Too tough I think for the likes of Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli to stay in touch. If you look at the top 10s in the 2015 and 2018 finishes, only Peter Sagan was not what you’d describe as a pure puncheur or climber.

Riders who showed well on stage 1 and will be looking to follow it up are Sergio Higuita, who has a good sprint on him, David Gaudu, Jack Haig, Wilco Kelderman, and Esteban Chaves. Another who finished in the front group was Dauphiné runner-up Alexey Lutsenko, but, considering his much improved time trialling skills, he must be considered a genuine GC threat now – if he attacks on the lower slopes then he has to be followed.

Astana–PremierTech ended up with three riders in the front group (Lutsenko, Fugslang and Aranburu) but neither were perhaps their best bet for stage 1. Newly crowned Spanish champion Omar Fraile is strong on the climbs and has a very decent sprint. Assuming he wasn’t too badly affected by the crashes, he might fancy a go here – at 100/1 he’s worth a small interest.

And what about Ineos–Grenadiers’ Richie Porte? Again, it’s a punt that he didn’t come down hard off-camera but he may want to attack early to try to claw back some of the 2mins 16secs lost on stage 1. The current Dauphiné champion can skip up these short, sharp climbs, and at 300/1 is also worth a pop.

Stage 2 Bets

Primož Roglič 1pt each way (4 places) @7/1

Pierre Latour 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Omar Fraile 0.25pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Richie Porte 0.25pts each way (4 places) @300/1

Posted Sat 26th June 21.46 BST