Stage 10 – Albertville > Valence (190.7km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Ben O’CONNOR (14/1)

2nd Mattia CATTANEO (66/1)

3rd Sonny COLBRELLI (500/1)

4th Guillaume MARTIN (50/1)

Recommended:

Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1 – 1st

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Mattia Cattaneo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1 – 2nd

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! A phenomenal ride from O’Connor in atrocious conditions that leapfrogs him into second place in the general classification. The Australian’s original Tour goal was a high GC position and if he can recover from this ride before the next mountain stage on Wednesday, has a shot at challenging for a spot on the podium. 

Colbrelli’s ride in third is worth noting – a continuation of his (and Bahrain–Victorious’) stellar form. He could now be a major challenger for the green jersey, especially if his rivals start struggling to make time cuts – current leader Cavendish just got in under the wire and not for the first time this Tour ended the stage in tears. Démare, who we haven’t seen at his best apparently due to illness, was not so lucky and his race is now over.

Pogačar never looked in trouble and even skipped away to steal another 30secs from his rivals on the final climb – the battle for the podium and top five is close, and many will be switching their focus towards that now that the win looks out of reach.

Stage 10 Preview

The profile suggests a straightforward flat stage that will end in a sprint finish, which may well happen, but it’s a little more complicated than that. First the weather – there’s a chance of stormy conditions later in the afternoon as well as the possibility of crosswinds that some teams will want to exploit. Those mistral winds may be most effective after a 5km unclassified rise averaging around 4% that peaks out about 30km from home, and some teams will no doubt be targeting this section to distance the fast men. 

With the loss of Ewan, Démare and Merlier, the sprint field is severely depleted meaning less teams on the front to police and control the break. If it does all come back together, there’s a big right turn at a roundabout inside the last 400m where positioning will be vital. Throw in the fact some riders may have wooden legs after the rest day, and the stage looks anything but straightforward.

Contenders

Prices are out, and at a best price of 13/8 Mark Cavendish is the solid favourite to make it a third stage victory in this year’s Tour. Given the variables mentioned above, there’s no way that price is a betting prospect, but he appears to be the fastest man left in the race, clearly has the strongest leadout, and is unlikely to get a better chance of challenging Eddy Merckx’s stage win record or of winning a second green jersey.

As he staggered to the podium after collapsing in tears into the arms of his teammates on stage 9, it was clear that the mountain stage up to Tignes had taken a huge toll on him – his recovery from that may be key not just to whether he wins the sprint, but whether he makes it into the front group when other teams turn the screw in the final 50km. On the plus side, there’s no better team than Deceuninck–Quick-Step for handling crosswinds, but it’s the lump 35km from home that might do for him. 

And there are quite a few teams that ought to try to ship Cavendish out the back – Team BikeExchange, Trek–Segafredo, Bora–Hansgrohe, Bahrain–Victorious, and maybe even Jumbo–Visma all might fancy turning up the heat. Those sprinters: Michael Matthews, Mads Pedersen, Peter Sagan, Sonny Colbrelli, and Wout van Aert respectively, would all fancy their chances in a reduced sprint. Of these, Sagan is probably looking the quickest right now and is available at around 14/1.

Colbrelli has been sensational uphill and is clearly in the form of his life – you can get 25s about the Italian champion. Van Aert has not looked like the Van Aert of 2020 as he continues his recovery from surgery, but that might change and is installed as 6/1 second favourite here, which looks a bit stingy. So too Trek’s Pedersen who, despite being well positioned coming into the sprints, has failed to challenge for the places. At 66/1, “Bling” Matthews is a bit more value and has already put Sagan, Colbrelli, and Pedersen behind him in a sprint (stage 4), but the race would probably have to break up to a certain extent to give him a shot at victory.   

Jasper Philipsen no longer has the deluxe leadout duo of Tim Merlier and Mathieu van der Poel at Alpecin–Fenix, but he’s clearly fast, and if he manages to get into a good position for the final bend has a big chance – 8/1 is a decent price and Philipsen is a pick.

Despite three sprint places in the Tour so far, Nacer Bouhanni is often unfairly overlooked as a top tier sprinter, and a win here would complete the full set of Grand Tour stage victories (he has three each at the Giro and Vuelta) – a pretty impressive palmarès. He’s without a win so far this season but the opportunity is definitely there for him here – there’s 8/1 available about Bouhanni too. 

Without a top five in a sprint so far despite being delivered well by Team DSM, Cees Bol will be looking to improve here but the best price of 14/1 does not appeal given what we’ve seen.

A breakaway win is not without a chance – the paucity of pure sprinters left in the race means that policing duties at the start may fall entirely on the shoulders of Deceuninck–Quick-Step. Should a critical mass of strong riders get clear then they might not come back. We may also see a number of sprint teams infiltrate the break as they did on stage 6 to allow their riders behind to sit back. 

With Arnaud Démare sadly missing the time cut on stage 9, Groupama–FDJ may be looking to stir things up by making the break as strong as possible or even with a late attack if the front group is reduced and disorganised. Swiss time trial champion Stefan Küng and Volta a la Communitat Valenciana stage winner Miles Scotson both fit that kind of profile and at 80/1 and 250/1 respectively are also worth a small interest.

Stage 10 Bets

Jasper Philipsen 2pts each way (3 places) @8/1

Michael Matthews 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Stefan Küng 0.25pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Miles Scotson 0.25pts each way (3 places) @250/1

Posted 18.25 BST Mon 5th July 2021