Stage 9 – Cluses > Tignes (144.9km)

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Stage 8 Result

1st Dylan TEUNS (40/1); 2nd Ion IZAGIRRE (22/1); 3rd Michael WOODS (11/1); 4th Tadej POGAČAR (11/2)

Recommended:

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1 – 2nd

Esteban Chaves 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Miguel Ángel López 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1 – 3rd

Nairo Quintana 0.5pts each way (4 places) @22/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Half-chapeau. A devastating show of power and domination from Pogačar – who needs a team when you can simply attack off the front of the GC favourites two climbs from home? Pog could win this Tour by 10mins if he’s not careful.

The race became very complicated after the initial break didn’t form over the first 5km rise from the gun. After multiple attacks and splits, a front break forged 6mins on the main group of favourites. Woods attacked early but Teuns overhauled him before the crest of the final climb, and despite a wet descent took the win by over 40secs – yet another Bahrain–Victorious win to continue their rich vein of form.

Stage 9 Preview

A short but brutal climbing day comprising two second-category, two first-category and our first hors-categorie climb of the Tour, all packed into less than 145km. The summit finish up the Montée de Tignes (21km at 5.6%) is a promised return after the shortened stage 19 two years ago where a snowstorm caused a landslide, blocked the road and prevented the riders from taking it on.

The climb itself doesn’t have any scary gradients, tipping over 9% for just a small section about 6km from home, but as we’ve seen in the past, plenty of damage can be done if the pace is fierce, especially at the end of such a hard day. Stiffer gradients can be found on the hors-categorie Col du Pré (12.6km at 7.7%) which could provoke some early skirmishes amongst the favourites.

Contenders

A summit finish at the top of a 20km climb on a stage before a rest day definitely tilts the race against a breakaway win – but nothing is 100% certain, and given the GC situation, break candidates have to be considered.  

Tadej Pogačar now has over 4mins 30secs lead over his GC rivals, assuming you count out Wout van Aert, and the Tour is his to lose. However, after stage 8, “rivals” is a bit of a joke – the defending champion absolutely dominated the field and doesn’t really need to attack again for the next two weeks. So we now get into a complicated game of personal motivations and team politics – it simply isn’t beneficial to the overall economic model of pro cycling for a single rider to win all of the mountain stages, even though it appears possible that UAE–Team Emirates and Pogačar could do so if they wish. Pog is around 4/1 for this stage and unless there’s an inexplicable loss of form, the stage is his if he and his team want it. 

But given the race situation, there is no pressure on UAE to ride and other teams will be wary of riding purely to expose their own man and tee up Pogačar for an attack. Indeed, should Ineos, for example, choose to ride it will be to put their podium challengers under pressure rather than with any expectation that the race leader himself might crumble.

So Pogačar apart, we need to look for late, unfollowed attacks, as well as potential break men to possibly challenge (or be allowed) to fight for stage honours.

Miguel Ángel López suffered a mechanical when the race was kicking off on stage 8 and he was forced to chase back on which didn’t help his chances. There is little doubt about “Superman’s” climbing talent and form, and at over 20mins back on GC has licence to either get in the break or attack late. López has a big opportunity here but a skimpy 10/1 puts me off. 

I much prefer Ben O’Connor at bigger odds to grasp this opportunity. The Aussie came into the race fancying a GC run off the back of solid performances in the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour de Romandie, and despite being more than 8mins down may still fancy a top 10 charge. But that time deficit should also give him some leeway for attacks – either for the break or from the group – at 14/1 O’Connor is the first pick. 

Julian Alaphilippe lost over 18mins on stage 8, putting to bed any hope of a GC challenge. He now has freedom to stage hunt, but for me he needs the rest day. We can assess Alaphilippe’s stage winning chances later in the race but he looks shot for the time being. I much prefer his Deceuninck–Quick-Step teammate Mattia Cattaneo who was very active on stage 8 and instigated many of the moves. 66/1 is decent though he may find a few too good for him.

Israel Start-up Nation’s Michael Woods animated much of the stage but paid for those efforts towards the top of the final climb, finally being caught and passed by the eventual winner Dylan Teuns. You have to fancy Woods again but it all depends on how fatigued he is from stage 8. I’d say plenty fatigued, so I would prefer to leave him.

Who might also get up the road? There are plenty who have both time on GC and eyes on a big summit finish in the Tour. Simon Yates, Wout Poels, and Jakob Fuglsang are all quality climbers who aren’t scared of taking a win. But at a bigger price of 40/1, the final pick is Trek–Segafredo’s Bauke Mollema who has ridden a pretty solid Tour so far off the back of a tough Giro. Should he make the break, the classy Dutchman will fancy his chances of going all the way.

Stage 9 Bets

Ben O’Connor 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Mattia Cattaneo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 02.13 BST Sun 4th July 2021