Stage 11 – Sorgues > Malaucène (198.9km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Mark CAVENDISH (13/8)

2nd Wout VAN AERT (6/1)

3rd Jasper PHILIPSEN (8/1)

Recommended:

Jasper Philipsen 2pts each way (3 places) @8/1 – 3rd

Michael Matthews 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1 – 5th

Stefan Küng 0.25pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Miles Scotson 0.25pts each way (3 places) @250/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

The importance of a good leadout – Deceuninck–Quick-Step did a fantastic job from 35km out to keep Cavendish out of danger on the rises, in the crosswinds, and to finally deliver Cavendish in a perfect position with 150m to go – the “Manx Missile” did the rest. Van Aert won the fight for Cav’s wheel but didn’t quite have the sprint to get up – still, it was good to see the Belgian champ back to some kind of form.

Philipsen showed a pretty explosive jump but started a little far back and by the time the road opened up, the line was on him. Colbrelli was hampered by an untimely puncture, whilst Pedersen hit the floor yet again and rolled in at the back of the race. There were splits behind in the crosswinds but no major GC players were caught out.

Stage 11 Preview

A stage that’s been marked in the diaries of cyclists and fans alike since the route was announced back in November – the first ever double ascent of the “Giant of Provence”, Mont Ventoux. Memorably, the last time we headed up Ventoux in 2016, Chris Froome ended up running part of it after crashing into a moto. 

The race was shortened by 6km that day due to the threat of high winds on top of the bald mountain. This time, the riders first take the easier side from Sault which never rises more than 6% for the first 17km before ramping up for the final 5km, hitting 9%+ a couple of kilometres from the summit. 

They then descend into the finish town of Malaucène before tackling the much harder side from Bédoin to start one of the toughest climbs in cycling – 15.7km at an average of 8.8%, hitting double digits frequently at the bottom and the top. However, unlike other years this isn’t a summit finish – the riders have a steep 22km descent to the finish line back in Malaucène.

Contenders

Despite his climbing dominance in the Tour so far, Tadej Pogačar didn’t actually win either of the two Alpine stages, though no doubt he could’ve done had he set off in pursuit of the breakaway a little earlier. However, Mont Ventoux is one of the most iconic climbs in cycling, and the double ascent makes it one of those stages that people will look back on for decades to come. For this reason, I think it’s one that Pogačar – carrying the kind of form he appears to be in – will want on his palmarès. Riders do have bad days, but assuming there hasn’t been an inexplicable loss of form over the last 48 hours, the 4/1 about Pogačar seems value enough for a bet on the nose.

If it comes down to a GC fight for the stage then the “best of the rest” appears to be Ineos Grenadiers’ Richard Carapaz. The Ecuadorian has twice attacked from the main group of favourites only for his efforts to come to nought. If he follows a bit more here and makes his attack near the top of Ventoux then he has the chance to put time into his rivals, though probably not the yellow jersey himself. At 25/1, Carapaz is also worth keeping onside.  

The second ascent of Mont Ventoux is so brutal that any breakaway will need a hefty lead at the bottom – perhaps upwards of 5mins – if they’re going to hold off the chasers. That tilts the race away from a breakaway win, however, it all depends upon the motivations and actions of those behind and so cannot be ruled out. So who might want to get up the road? Joint second favourites at around 16/1 on most books are Team BikeExchange’s Simon Yates and Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s Julian Alaphilippe.

Yates of course is a quality climber and at anything like his top form will fancy this, but there hasn’t been much sign of that as he builds his form for the Olympic road race. He may target one of the later mountain stages as his best chance of a stage win so is best left here. After a successful first week, Alaphilippe’s form appears to be going the other way; he also appears to be burying himself in the services of Mark Cavendish and so is also dodged for this.

Alaphilippe’s teammate Mattia Cattaneo had a great day on Sunday, riding away from some quality climbers to finish second behind Ben O’Connor. He’ll be looking to get up the road again and at 25/1 would have a serious chance. O’Connor himself may surprise on how well he sticks with the GC favourites. However, despite a decent 66/1 about him, the downhill finish is not in his favour.  

Astana–PremierTech have a number of cards to play, with the best in my opinion being Ion Izagirre. The Basque rider finished runner-up on stage 8 with a super ride, despite taking the wrong road on a descent. That belied his usually excellent descending skills which will be key on this stage. At a best price of 20/1, Izagirre is a pick.

It seems to be a pretty good tactic these days to just bet Bahrain Victorious riders blind, and one of their crew (and another Basque rider), Pello Bilbao, appears to be building his form just at the right time. He sits just outside the top 10, 8mins 38secs down in the general classification which might make it difficult for him to join the early break, but even if he doesn’t, he may get a bit of rope with a late attack. Crucially, Bilbao is also an excellent descender, and at 28/1 he’s the final pick.  

I’m not a fan of backing riders in contention for the polka dot jersey as a lot of energy is spent on summit sprints – that rules out Nairo Quintana, Michael Woods, and Wout Poels. 

Sergio Higuita showed on stage 9 that he’s both climbing and descending very well, before finally succumbing in the last few kilometres to the freezing conditions. A wet forecast could be added to with strong winds this time which is not good news for lightweight climbers like Higuita.  

Stage 11 Bets

Tadej Pogačar 3pts win @4/1

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Pello Bilbao 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Posted 20.26 BST Tue 6th July 2021