Stage 12 – Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux > Nîmes (159.4km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Wout VAN AERT (125/1)

2nd Kenny ELISSONDE (500/1)

3rd Bauke MOLLEMA (40/1)

4th Tadej POGAČAR (4/1)

Recommended:

Tadej Pogačar 3pts win @4/1 – 4th

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1 – 6th

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Pello Bilbao 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Welcome back the real Wout van Aert – lose a sprint by inches one day, win a double-Ventoux stage the next. Chapeau. Not for the first time, Alaphilippe appeared to expend too much energy pushing the pace in the breakaway and paid the price on the final climb. That said, cycling would be the loser if he stopped riding in such a cavalier fashion.

Ineos did all the work on the front of the peloton but were a couple of minutes shy of pegging the break to set up a potential stage win for Carapaz. In the end, the Ecuadorian couldn’t attack off the pace and it was Vingegaard who rode off the front and exposed a chink in Pogačar’s armour for the first time in this Tour. No time was lost in the end, but it gave hope for a much closer race than we thought on the way to Paris.

Stage 12 Preview

A deceptively lumpy stage with 2000m of climbing but similar in profile to stage 10 with a single categorised climb, the threat of crosswinds, and an unclassified rise near the end. Despite those dangers, Deceuninck–Quick-Step were able to control that stage, and will be looking to do so again and deliver Mark Cavendish for what would be a record-equalling 34th Tour de France stage win.

This time, however, the small rise (3.9km at 3%) is nearer the finish than it was on stage 10 – peaking just 10km out – giving sprint teams less time to regain their position if they get shuffled down the field. Also note, the intermediate sprint is just 26km from the line so it will be a judgement whether those eyeing a stage win also decide to burn a match competing for green jersey points.

The final itself is quite technical with a crucial right-hand bend with 800m to go where good positioning is vital, before going straight over a roundabout just before sprints are unleashed.

Contenders

Deceuninck–Quick-Step gave a masterclass in how to look after your sprinter on stage 10, dropping Mark Cavendish off in the final 150m to finish the job. In fact it was the Belgian outfit themselves who appeared to do most damage in the crosswinds. Cavendish – together with four teammates – made the time cut a little more comfortably on stage 11 than he did up to Tignes, and assuming the team’s legs have recovered, there’s no reason they can’t repeat their stage 10 performance here. The Manx man is the justified favourite at around 11/8. 

Nacer Bouhanni was second-to-last over the line on stage 11 and also lost two of his Arkea–Samsic teammates – Dan Mclay and Clément Russo. He has the speed and if positioned well can go close, but a win would be a surprise. Bouhanni is priced around 11/1.

The line came just too soon for Jasper Philipsen on stage 10 after he found himself somewhat boxed in. Again, positioning will be key for Philipsen without the help of Merlier and Van der Poel. The road is wider in this final, and if the Alpecin–Fenix man can be near the front at the last roundabout, I believe he has the speed to get up. He’s a slightly shorter price here, but we’re going in again with Philipsen at 6/1 to win. 

Can we write off Wout van Aert after his incredible exploits on stage 11? Probably not, but it would be some feat, perhaps one of the greatest in Tour history. Still, the bookies have him installed as the 4/1 second favourite – I’ll give him a miss, especially at that price.

Both Bora–Hansgrohe and Bahrain–Victorious may try to split the bunch on the final rise to set up Peter Sagan or Sonny Colbrelli respectively to win from a reduced group sprint, though neither team came to the fore on stage 10 with anything like the power required to punch some holes in the peloton. Sagan hasn’t looked himself since his stage 3 tumble with Caleb Ewan and is likely to be challenging for the places rather than the win. Colbrelli, like Michael Matthews, will target the intermediate sprint which comes only 26km from the line – it would be some effort to then win the final dash. 

The outcome of this stage may well be determined by two factors – how well riders have come out of a super tough stage 11, and how hard the wind blows. Some of the weather forecasting in this Tour has been tricky with riders dodging thunderstorms that seem to be following them around France.

Deceuninck–Quick-Step may have to shoulder policing duties while the break is forming and a large group could be difficult to bring back. It didn’t happen on stage 9 but I think the chances are greater here as minds and bodies grow ever more tired. In this scenario it’s worth having a saver on classics-type riders who can deal with the ups and downs but have a punchy sprint to finish it off. Two riders come to mind – Jasper Stuyven and Magnus Cort were second and third on stage 7 into Le Creusot. Neither are fast enough against the pure sprinters but both would fancy their chances in a reduced sprint or even a solo break over the final rise.   

Another rider who is quietly having an impressive Tour is TotalEnergies’ Anthony Turgis. The one-day specialist had a great spring season with several classics top tens. If the race gets super tough, then Turgis could go close at a very big price.   

Stage 12 Bets

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @6/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Magnus Cort 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Anthony Turgis 0.25pts each way (3 places) @150/1

Posted 22.43 BST Wed 7th July 2021