Stage 13 – Nîmes > Carcassonne (219.9km)

Profile

Stage 12 Result

1st Nils POLITT

2nd Imanol ERVITI

3rd Harry SWEENY

Recommended:

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @6/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Magnus Cort 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Anthony Turgis 0.25pts each way (3 places) @150/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

There were echelons pretty much from the gun as the winds blew and split the race apart. A big, strong group got clear, and with the tiredness in the bunch after stage 11 and the relatively tough parcours ahead of them, any thought of a chase was called off pretty quick, especially as Alaphilippe was in the front group. The peloton settled down and those that had been distanced in the wind got back on.

There were some fast men in the break – Greipel, Theuns, Mezgec – but it was the strong rouleurs who forged a gap 45km out and didn’t come back. After Peter Sagan’s unfortunate departure from the race in the morning of the stage, this was a well timed and well deserved win for Politt which has gone a long way to saving the Tour for Bora.

Stage 13 Preview

We start from where we stopped, in Nîmes, for a stage that could play out in a similar way to stage 12. If the winds blow, the race could split apart again and set up another breakaway win. If Deceuninck–Quick-Step manage to allow and then control a smaller break, then they’ll be looking to position Mark Cavendish for a record-equalling 34th Tour stage win. 

At 220km, this is also a much longer stage than the day before, which may also tilt the stage in favour of the breakaway. GC teams will have to be vigilant in the winds, and this may also shape the stage – should a contender miss a split, then rival teams will push on to try to bury them, potentially dooming any break.

If it does end in a sprint, or reduced sprint, there are a couple of 90-degree bends in the last kilometre, and then a jink left on a narrowing road within the last 100m where a clear run at the front will be vital.

Contenders

Mark Cavendish was a best price of 11/8 for stage 12, but there’s 3/1 available about him here. He’s still the strong favourite, but it suggests that many riders, having seen how the stage to Nîmes played out, are looking to get up the road on a day that could be very difficult to control. Even at 3s, Cavendish isn’t a backable price in my opinion, given the variables on this tricky stage. That said, if he’s got his leadout around him coming into the final, the Manx man is the likeliest winner.

Even though Cavendish doesn’t like to talk about it, Merckx’s record will be on the team’s mind, as to equal and then beat it he needs to find two wins, and there are only three sprint stages remaining (and that’s assuming he makes all of the time cuts in the mountains). As on stage 12, we may see Deceuninck–Quick-Step infiltrate the break as a back-up plan – Kasper Asgreen or Davide Ballerini at 14/1 and 28/1 respectively are the most likely.

Second favourite is Jumbo–Visma’s Wout van Aert, and given that he’s had a day’s “recovery” from his Mont Ventoux exploits, has serious possibilities here. Van Aert can win from all scenarios – a breakaway, a reduced or bunch sprint, or even a late solo attack. He’s perfectly adept at positioning himself in the crosswinds and riding wheels in the final.

His team is however seriously depleted, and he may be needed to protect podium hopeful Jonas Vingegaard – something the team has been criticised for not doing earlier in the Tour. After the white jersey wearer’s standout performance up Ventoux, that now may end. At 11/1, the Belgian champ could land a second stage victory, but he probably won’t go chasing it from the off; he might get the green light in the final once babysitting duties are over as was often the case in last year’s edition.

I’m loath to leave out Jasper Philipsen who I believe, given a good position and some clear road does have a kick to match Cavendish’s. He’s available at 12/1, more than twice the price of stage 12, which looks big and will look very big if we’ve got a bunch coming into the final few kilometres.

The three breakaway picks for stage 12 – Jasper Stuyven, Magnus Cort, and Anthony Turgis were 40/1, 80/1, and 150/1 respectively. After seeing how that stage played out, those juicy prices have disappeared for stage 13; they are now 22/1, 25/1 and 50/1, so the value has gone to a certain extent.

Cort especially has been slashed as he won into Carcassonne in 2018, albeit on a much hillier course, and basically said he was going for the break again here. Trek–Segafredo’s Edward Theuns was in the break on stage 12, so it’s not a stretch to think, assuming Mads Pedersen is still feeling the effects of his numerous spills, that Stuyven will be the chosen one here.  

Lotto–Soudal will almost certainly have representation, with Critérium de Dauphiné stage winner Brent van Moer again a likely candidate, though he’s expended an awful lot of energy already in this Tour – can he go to the well again?

There are a host of others that could get involved in a stage that has the potential to be chaotic (or indeed routine), but in the end I’ve plumped for the same guys as stage 12, where I really hope they were saving their legs.

Stage 13 Bets

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @12/1

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Magnus Cort 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Anthony Turgis 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Posted 21.49 BST Thu 8th July 2021