Stage 14 – Carcassonne > Quillan (183.7km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Mark CAVENDISH (3/1)

2nd Michael MØRKØV (250/1)

3rd Jasper PHILIPSEN (12/1)

Recommended:

Jasper Philipsen 2pts win @12/1 – 3rd

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Magnus Cort 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Anthony Turgis 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

For a long time this looked like a routine bunch sprint day, then it didn’t, then it did, then it didn’t, and finally it was. A small break was controlled for a long way, but a big crash about 60km out caused some chaos as well as abandonments (most notably for the Team BikeExchange pair of Simon Yates and Lucas Hamilton).

There were some attacks off the front afterwards but Deceuninck did a great job bringing them back. It got very messy after passing under the flamme rouge with lots of twists and turns, but somehow Cavendish was delivered just in time to get the win and equal Merckx’s record – what price him going one better on the Champs Élysées?

Stage 14 Preview

Two third-category and three second-category climbs make this stage too hard for the sprinters but not hard enough for the GC men and suggest that it’s very likely to be won by the breakaway. The final ascent of the day – the Col de Saint-Louis (4.7km at 7.4%) – tops out 17km from the line and includes some serious double-digit ramps at the bottom. This is where the decisive stage-winning attack is likely to be launched.

Despite not being a pure mountain stage, we may see some movement in that competition as only 14 points cover the top five (there are 19 points available on this stage) – these riders will have to decide whether to try for the break here or save their legs for Sunday’s much more mountainous climbs across to Andorra.

Contenders

Wide-open stages like these present an opportunity for the bettor as there are plenty of decent prices available, but also a puzzle as there are more riders in with a chance of winning – a bit like a handicap horse race. Unlike a mountain stage where an essential ingredient of a winning breakaway rider is that they are excellent climbers, a stage like this can be won by a greater range of rider type – puncheurs, classics riders, pure climbers, or even a few of the fast men. 

There are a couple of small unclassified rises in the first 30km which might help the break establish itself, otherwise we may have to wait for the first classified climb which comes after 50km. Either way, you’ll need to have strong legs as it won’t be easy and several efforts may be necessary before the elastic snaps. 

Wout van Aert is back to his best and it goes without saying has all the attributes to win this type of stage. He appears to have the freedom to hunt more stage wins as he was prominent on stage 13 and it shouldn’t be the type of stage where Jonas Vingegaard needs much babysitting. At around 8/1, the Belgian champ is the favourite – if he makes the break, which is always something of a lottery, then he has serious chances. 

After guiding Mark Cavendish brilliantly to a fourth stage win, other Decueninck–Quick-Step riders should get their chance today and second in the book is another marquee rider, Julian Alaphilippe. But others should also be considered – Kasper Asgreen, Dries Devenyns and Davide Ballerini have all looked super strong. Asgreen is the shortest at around 20s but the final sharp climb doesn’t really suit him, and Ballerini should not be dismissed as he’s won some races with plenty of climbing metres. The Italian is worth a small interest at a much bigger 150/1.

The intermediate sprint comes after the first classified climb which gives green jersey hopefuls Sonny Colbrelli and Michael Matthews the opportunity to close the gap between themselves and Cavendish. Of the two – and after his incredible performance up to Tignes on stage 9 – it’s the Italian champion who has the best chance of going on to compete for the stage; there’s 18/1 about him.

Stage 12 and 13 picks Magnus Cort, Jasper Stuyven and Anthony Turgis are definitely the type of riders that could shine. The danger would be whether they can live with the purer climbers when it starts going uphill, but all three are strong and have a good sprint. Stuyven particularly was very active on stage 13 and is looking too strong to be ignored; it’s third time lucky for this year’s Milan-Sanremo winner.   

EF Education–Nippo have more options other than Cort – Ruben Guerreiro, Michael Valgren, and Stefan Bissegger all have chances. Despite coming into the race in good form, Valgren has been a bit anonymous, whilst Guerreiro’s form appears to be building. This stage is good for him, and at 33s we’ll go with the Portuguese. 

It’s been a disappointing Tour so far for AG2R–Citroën’s Benoît Cosnefroy after focusing his season around a shot at yellow on the opening weekend. The multiple crashes did for his chances there, but stage 14 presents another opportunity for the talented Frenchman. He’s available at around 66/1 which looks big but reflects how little he has shown so far in this edition. 

Movistar haven’t had the greatest Tour so will be looking at getting some guys in the weekend breaks. The parcours here favours Alejandro Valverde and particularly Iván García Cortina. The Paris-Nice stage winner impressed at the Tour de Suisse prior to the Tour and finished fourth on stage 13 so is clearly going well. At a decent 33/1, García is the final pick. 

About 50 others will fancy their chances and there’s a certain amount of breakaway lottery about this one – hopefully one of this lot hits the jackpot.

Stage 14 Bets

Davide Ballerini 0.25pts each way (5 places) @150/1 

Sonny Colbrelli 1pt each way (5 places) @18/1

Benoît Cosnefroy 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1

Iván García Cortina 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1

Posted 21.16 BST Fri 9th July 2021