Stage 15 – Céret > Andorre-La-Vieille (191.3km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Bauke MOLLEMA (50/1)

2nd Patrick KONRAD (50/1)

3rd Sergio HIGUITA (33/1)

4th Mattia CATTANEO (40/1)

Recommended:

Davide Ballerini 0.25pts each way (5 places) @150/1 

Sonny Colbrelli 1pt each way (5 places) @18/1

Benoît Cosnefroy 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1

Iván García Cortina 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

The problem with days where the breakaway is nailed-on to win is that everybody wants to be in it. So after 100km and getting close to two hours of racing, the break had yet to form. It would take the tough second-category Col de Montségur to finally get a decisive split which tilted the stage very much in favour of the climbers and away from the puncheurs. The 14 clear were stacked with talent, but it was Mollema who attacked after the penultimate climb and got a gap that proved unbridgeable. 

The mountains classification has tightened up with Woods, Quintana, and Poels separated by only five points; the Canadian Woods now holds the polka dot jersey going into stage 15. Guillaume Martin, who managed to infiltrate the break, was the big GC winner, moving up to second overall.

Stage 15 Preview

A big Pyrenean mountain stage before the second rest day with three first-category climbs, though it isn’t until the last of these – the Col de Beixalis (6.4km at 8.5%) – that a GC dust-up is likely to start. The preceding first-category ascents (8.4km at 5.7%; 10.7km at 5.9%) are longer but much less steep so gaps are unlikely amongst the favourites unless the accumulation of brutal days and tiredness has caught up with them.

The stage starts with an unclassified 18km climb at an average of almost 3% and therefore favours the strongest climbers that are not in GC contention to form the break. Note again that this is not a summit finish, so the winning rider will need to have good descending skills and perhaps a decent sprint should they arrive in a reduced group. Whether that rider is from the break or not depends entirely on the motivations and tactics of those in the GC group behind.

Contenders

With attacks within the GC group only likely to start on the last climb and the fact that it’s not a summit finish, it would seem the stage is tipped in favour of a breakaway win. However, I’m not so sure. With only two mountain days left after this one, teams chasing the yellow jersey or podium positions are running out of stages to make a difference.

Ineos Grenadiers were criticised on the Ventoux stage for driving the pace only for Richard Carapaz to get jumped by Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar. For me, that’s harsh – you have to try something. They could hardly just ride in behind UAE–Team Emirates all the way to the finish, and they did manage to shake out some other GC men during this softening-up process.

I expect Ineos, or indeed Jumbo–Visma, buoyed by that performance by Vingegaard, to do something similar here which may make a breakaway win tight. So it’s in the balance, and the staking plan should reflect that.

This stage passes the highest point in this year’s Tour – the summit of Port d’Envalira sits at 2408m above sea level. This high altitude is “very favourable”, to use his own words, for Ecuadorian Carapaz who spoke bullishly after stage 14. We can expect him to be at the business end when they hit the final climb and the 25/1 about him looks value. 

Jumbo–Visma have been keen to send men up the road and hunt for stages (which worked for them and Wout van Aert on stage 11) but Vingegaard might finally get some men around him for this with the Belgian champion, Sepp Kuss, and Steven Kruiswijk making an impressive mountain train.

But with that comes extra pressure and responsibility – it’ll be interesting to see if the young Dane can repeat his impressive ride up Ventoux. If his team decided against that tactic, then those aforementioned riders would be very dangerous from the break for stage honours. Indeed, Kuss is about fourth favourite at just 18/1. 

We should get to see whether Pogačar’s mini-crack on that stage was a blip or a sign that his form is on the downturn. It’s easy to forget that he was still second to the top of Mont Ventoux among the favourites, so it was hardly a complete blow-up. He can of course afford to manage his efforts, lose a bit of time on each remaining mountain stage and still have a handy lead going into the final time trial, but he won’t want to give any encouragement to his rivals.

It’s going to be another hot day, above 30 degrees, however I’m not sure that this is quite the kryptonite to Pog’s powers that is being suggested. The Slovenian is favourite for the stage at a best price of 9/1, and I think a win saver is wise. 

If we are to see two races in one, who might get up the road? First on my list is Ion Izagirre – an excellent climber and descender with plenty of time on GC, the Basque man already has a second place from stage 8; he can go one better here at 22/1.

Ben O’Connor and Guillaume Martin both leapfrogged into GC contention by being in breakaways. And another rider might fancy doing something similar here – Bahrain Victorious’ Pello Bilbao currently lies in 11th at 10mins 28secs. However, teams defend podiums, top fives and top tens, especially in Grand Tours, which may complicate a breakaway move and shows why O’Connor and Martin’s jump was so unusual.

Bilbao still has chances should he stay with the favourites though – an early attack on the final climb combined with his excellent descending skills could see him take the day. His teammate Wout Poels – currently lying in third in the mountains competition – will also try to get up the road.  

Similarly, polka dot jersey wearer Michael Woods will surely join him. The Canadian has great legs right now and has been unlucky that a stage hasn’t fallen his way yet. Woods will have to burn some matches at the summits which may take his edge off in the final. Like many of the riders, Woods lives in these parts so should know the roads well, and at a best price of 22/1 has to be included.

Wood’s teammate Dan Martin – also an Andorra resident – was briefly off the front on stage 14, but it’s difficult to assess his form as he’s frequently been unable to attack with Woods ahead of him on the road. If he’s close to his Giro form then he has serious chances, but we have no evidence to suggest he is.    

Stage 14 pick Ruben Guerreiro was very active on the front, repeatedly trying to force the break, ultimately in vain. He may be held back to help his leader Rigoberto Urán, but if not, his form appears to be on the upturn and has a chance at a decent price. 

Miguel Ángel López could turnaround Movistar’s poor Tour but is short enough at around 18/1 and has had a bit of a stinker so far. Similarly, Team BikeExchange’s plans for the Pyrenees were shot to bits with the loss of two-thirds of their climbing talent – Simon Yates and Lucas Hamilton – on stage 13. The remaining prong of their trident, Esteban Chaves, is a 33/1 shot and also has a chance on a parcours that suits.  

Stage 15 Bets

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Tadej Pogačar 2pts win @9/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (3 places) 22/1

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 21.09 BST Sat 10th July 2021