Stage 16 – Pas de la Case > Saint-Gaudens (169km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Sepp KUSS (18/1)

2nd Alejandro VALVERDE (33/1)

3rd Wout POELS (33/1)

4th Ion IZAGIRRE (22/1)

Stage 15 Bets:

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Tadej Pogačar 2pts win @9/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (3 places) 22/1

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1 – 4th

Pello Bilbao 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1 – 5th

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Jumbo–Visma clearly decided to put the prestige of a stage win ahead of a Tour podium position, and now they have two of them. Van Aert, Kuss, and Kruijswijk all made the front group leaving Vingegaard to fend for himself behind. Indeed the break that got away was stacked with current and past GC men, but it was Kuss that put in a devastating attack on the final climb and won the day.

Ineos and Movistar turned up the heat behind but no decisive moves were made and they go into the final mountain stages on Wednesday and Thursday where summit finishes should sort the order out. The mountains competition is still very close – only 10 points separate Poels, Woods, Quintana, and Van Aert. What price Van Aert sprinting to victory on the Champs-Élysées in the polka dot jersey?

Stage 16 Preview

A medium mountain stage but we’re unlikely to see any significant time gaps amongst the favourites as the climbs are long but lacking in stiff gradients. The steepest section is in the final 2km of the second-category Col de Portet-d’Aspet which briefly goes above 10% and could be a launchpad for attacks. However, there are still over 30km to cover after summiting this climb, so any riders missing a split have time to regroup and get back on.    

So, even though there may be some skirmishes behind, the breakaway is favoured to take the win. However, with the first 35km being pretty much all downhill, we may have to wait until the riders hit the second-category Col de Port (11.4km at 5.1%) before some strong climbers finally get away.

Contenders

Given the final five stages are likely to be contested by the GC favourites, sprinters, and time trial specialists, stage 16 could present the final opportunity for some riders and teams to take something out of this year’s Tour. So we’re likely to see a big fight to make the break that won’t go until enough teams are represented. 

Sepp Kuss indicated after his win on stage 15 that he would now ride in the service of Jonas Vingegaard, but that’s unlikely to be true of stage favourite Wout van Aert. Not only is the Belgian champ likely to be given his head for the stage win, he is also – along with Wout Poels, Michael Woods, and Nairo Quintana – chasing the polka dot jersey and so needs to make breaks to pick up points. 

Deceuninck–Quick-Step have a number of options and at least one of Julian Alaphilippe, Kasper Asgreen, Mattia Cattaneo, or Davide Ballerini will get up the road. Of these, Cattaneo probably offers the most value at a best price of 40/1 though is knocking on the door of a GC top 10, so teams defending those positions, most notably Bahrain Victorious for Pello Bilbao who lies in 10th, 3mins ahead of Cattaneo, may not be happy with him in the break. Alaphilippe is second favourite at a best price of 10/1 which looks short considering he hasn’t quite had the legs to finish off some opportunities he’s had in breaks.   

Bahrain themselves have stage winners Matej Mohorič and Dylan Teuns, polka dot wearer Poels, and maybe even Sonny Colbrelli as stage hopefuls. Teuns was in the break on stage 15 but finished a disappointing 15th. Slovenian champion Mohorič is joint third favourite for the stage at 16/1.  

He shares that position with Astana–PremierTech’s Omar Fraile. Despite being tipped for a few stages, the Spanish champion has only once made the break, on stage 14, where he found others too strong, albeit on a brutal day. Astana have other options – Ion Izagirre would probably prefer a tougher climbing day but the Basque man is a great climber and descender and has already been close with a second and a fourth. Alex Aranburu came into the race in top form from the Itzulia Basque Country and the Critérium de Dauphiné, and has a sprint to finish off a win from a reduced group.   

Following Izagirre home on stage 15 was EF Education–Nippo’s Ruben Guerreiro and this presents another opportunity for the Portuguese. Though Guerreiro often appears to waste energy pushing off the front either to make breaks or when in them, it shows he clearly has good legs at the moment. If he can hold back and time a single attack correctly, then he could take the stage; Guerreiro is in again at 40/1. EF have other serious options in Sergio Higuita and Magnus Cort, and it would be no surprise to see all of these riders in the break.

What of Ineos–Grenadiers’ tactics? Without a stage win and unlikely to be on the top step in Paris, might they give some riders a breakaway pass? If so, stage winner from last year Michał Kwiatkowski would be a prime candidate. He looks in top form and would be one of the favourites if he’s up there. 

Trek–Segafredo’s best options probably lie with Jasper Stuyven and stage 14 winner Bauke Mollema. Both look super strong and could find themselves in the break with a couple of domestiques, increasing their chances. Milan-Sanremo winner Stuyven can win solo or from a reduced sprint and can make it two in three stages for Trek; he’s a selection at 25/1.

Alejandro Valverde produced an excellent performance to chase Sepp Kuss home on stage 15 and this stage is also right up his street. But at a bigger price of 40/1, I prefer “Bala’s” teammate Iván García Cortina, a punchy sprinter, who showed his climbing strength by pulling the peloton apart on the same stage. He has a chance here to save the Tour for Movistar. 

Bora–Hansgrohe have two good options with Austrian pair Lukas Postleberger and Patrick Konrad. Dauphiné stage winner Postleberger made the break on stage 15 but then fell away pretty quickly when the heat was turned up. Konrad placed second in stage 14 and crucially has a very good sprint which is always handy if you arrive at the line with company.

Stage 16 Bets

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Iván García Cortina 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Posted 21.54 BST Mon 12th July 2021