Stage 17 – Muret > Saint-Lary-Soulan Col du Portet (178.4km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Patrick KONRAD (40/1)

2nd Sonny COLBRELLI (33/1)

3rd Michael MATTHEWS (50/1)

Stage 16 Bets:

Jasper Stuyven 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Iván García Cortina 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1 – 1st

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! Again the break took a long time to form with even the second-category Col de Port unable to split them. A group of 14 finally got clear and Konrad struck for home over 30km out on the penultimate climb. Gaudu and Colbrelli chased behind but the Austrian champion was on a special day. We’ve now seen eight breakaway wins and all of them have been won with solo attacks, often a long way from the line.

Perhaps wary of the tough two mountain stages to come, the GC men pretty much had a day off but for a strange split when Van Aert led out the top 11 in GC for the final few kilometres – if the intention was for his leader Vingegaard to steal a few seconds on the line, it failed.

Stage 17 Preview

This is the penultimate mountain day in this year’s Tour and therefore one of the last opportunities for GC hopefuls to make gains on rivals. The riders have over 100km of flattish roads before taking on two first-category climbs and then the hors categorie Col du Portet – 16km of brutal gradients where attacks will fly and significant time gaps can be forged. 

The flat start is not ideal for lightweight climbers, who may need the help of a strong rouleur teammate to make the breakaway. GC teams will also want riders up the road to help their leader later in the stage, though they often mark each other and end up with nobody. Given the difficulty of the final climb, any breakaway will need at least 5mins at the bottom to have any chance of taking the day.

Contenders

Despite having a lead of over 5mins, Tadej Pogačar has not won any of the road stages so far in this Tour – his only win coming in the stage 5 time trial. But unlike previous mountain stages, this is very much tilted in favour of the GC favourites. Of course, he doesn’t need to win and could just manage his efforts, play a defensive game, and cover moves. But to win in yellow on a summit finish confirming his superiority and pretty much putting the race to bed is surely Pogačar’s aim here. Pog is the strong favourite at just 5/2.

The only rider who has distanced the Slovenian so far – on the second ascent of Mont Ventoux – is the young Dane Jonas Vingegaard. In just his second Grand Tour (though still two years older than defending champion Pogačar) this is a big test for him at the back end of such a tough race. Currently lying in third, 14secs behind Rigoberto Urán and just 1sec ahead of Richard Carapaz, the question for Vingegaard is whether to attack or defend. At a short-looking 4/1, the Jumbo–Visma man is second favourite for the stage.

Without being able to match the snappy attacks of his younger rivals, Urán is likely to ride a more measured final climb in the hope that others will come back to him. Often underestimated, he’s sure to get the best result out of the day that he possibly can, though I suspect he may be off the podium by the end of it. 

Given that Carapaz is probably the weakest time trialist of the front four on GC, Ineos Grenadiers simply have to take the race on. Even if the hope of breaking Pogačar is optimistic, they need to do damage to podium rivals as early as possible. Carapaz is a very classy, intelligent rider, and it would be no surprise to see him move up to second overall after this stage.  

Among the top 10, Enric Mas probably has the next best chance of challenging for a stage win. Movistar showed confidence in him on stage 15 by driving a hard pace up the final climb and he’s probably the purest climber out of the riders from fifth to tenth. He’ll certainly be eyeing up a move north on general classification and at 33/1 is a good each way bet.

It’s a big day in the battle for the polka dot jersey with 60 points up for grabs. However, 40 of those are for the hors categorie summit finish at Saint-Lary-Soulan, so if the breakaway doesn’t contest the final then we’ll see one of the GC favourites making big strides in the mountains classification too. That said, we should definitely see Wout Poels, Michael Woods, Wout van Aert, and especially Nairo Quintana, who was the last to win up the Col du Portet in 2018, trying to make the breakaway.  

David Gaudu made the break on stage 16 but unlike Patrick Konrad was tentative in attacking the race and making the most of his climbing strength to drop the faster men. This stage is more to his liking with long, stiff gradients and with it being Bastille Day is certain to try for the break. He came good at the end of last year’s Vuelta, winning two stages, and will be looking to save the Tour for Groupama–FDJ, who’ve had a stinker. At 20/1, Gaudu is in. 

As one of the purest climbers not in GC contention, Ion Izagirre also makes the selections. He could be held back to help his leader, Alexey Lutsenko, but he can still do that if he’s caught in the group ahead. An overall top ten for Lutsenko is not as prestigious as a stage win, and so far Astana–PremierTech are without one. I think they’ll stamp the Basque man’s breakaway licence, and if it stays away, he has a big chance.  

Team BikeExchange’s Esteban Chaves is sure to try for the break but will need a Luke Durbridge or Chris Juul-Jensen to pull him into it. He too has the climbing chops to go close. And if Dan Martin has ridden himself back into his formidable Giro form, then he also can play a part.

Stage 17 Bets

Tadej Pogačar 4pts win @5/2

Enric Mas 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1

David Gaudu 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Posted 21.11 BST Tue 13th July 2021