Stage 7 – Vierzon > Le Creusot (249.1km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Mark CAVENDISH (2/1); 2nd Jasper PHILIPSEN (12/1); 3rd Nacer BOUHANNI (16/1)

Recommended:

Arnaud Démare 2pts each way (3 places) @15/2 – 4th

Sonny Colbrelli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Cavendish delivered a 50th Grand Tour stage win and a 32nd in the Tour, two away from Merckx’s record, in a boulevard sprint into Châteauroux. A strong break with most sprint teams represented got a lead of a minute before finally being brought back with perhaps some of the breakers in two minds whether to push on.

Cavendish deviated a little on his line, causing the Alpecin–Fenix pair of Merlier and Philipsen to shorten up, but no protest or relegation was considered. Bouhanni again finished in the places demonstrating that he is, perhaps unfairly, underestimated in the sprints. Démare lost his wing-man, Guarnieri, in a spill 3km out which may have affected his positioning, but he simply didn’t have the kick required to challenge for the win.

Stage 7 Preview

The longest stage of the Tour at almost 250km with some tough ascents in the final 50km that could make for a dramatic and complicated final. But it all depends on the break – if it’s strong with eight or more riders then they ought to be allowed to contest the day. But if enough teams fancy their chances from behind then it may be set up for the puncheur/sprinters or even GC men to battle it out.

After the changeable weather in Brittany, we look set for dry skies and temperatures in the mid-20s.

Contenders

This is a tricky stage to work out with a number of different possible scenarios – a big, strong break gets clear and is allowed to contest the final, teams with puncheur types control a smallish break and bring it back, GC hitters – perhaps those that have time to make up – have a pop over one of the final sharp ascents and take the stage, or maybe even a mixture of all three. 

Our man in yellow, Mathieu van der Poel, will not be riding all the way to Paris. So, this stage presents one of the few opportunities left for another stage victory. That said, Van der Poel has already achieved his principle objective of the yellow jersey and a stage victory, and in the process buried himself twice both for his win and in the time trial. That must come at a cost, even for a superhuman like Van der Poel. A best price of 7/1 does not present value as I see it. 

A punchy final rise to the line suits a number of riders if it all comes back together. Julian Alaphilippe has had a great Tour so far – the dream stage 1 win and yellow, as well as being very present in Mark Cavendish’s positioning and leadout for his two wins. But similar to Van der Poel, it’s been a hard first week and this stage might be a stretch on his pained legs. Second favourite Alaphilippe should also be swerved. 

And I’m passing on the third up in the book too with Wout van Aert looking a level below his best. I’d be surprised if Jumbo–Visma put their shoulder to the wheel of the chase considering their tumbles in the first four stages, and their primary focus is keeping the injured Roglič safe. 

In short, we need to split our stakes on a breakaway or non-breakaway win. Should it come back together, apart from the favourites above, there are a number of candidates – Michael Matthews and Peter Sagan have both impressed and been close to a win. But I still prefer a rider who came into the race as the most in-form rider on the World Tour – I refuse to believe Sonny Colbrelli will leave the Tour without a win, and at a best price of 18/1 is a saver should the break not make it. 

However, I suspect a critical mass of riders will want to get up the road – especially after the failed negotiation of the effort on stage 6 – and given the classic-like distance of the stage there will not be enough teams willing to take up the chase. It’s the old question – who’s gonna ride?

So who might make the break? Well, take your pick … rarely has there been a Tour with so many teams with as many stage hunters. After Caleb Ewan’s premature departure, Lotto Soudal will want to be in any break going that has a chance – Thomas de Gendt and Brent van Moer are prime candidates.  

EF Education–Nippo are packed with stage hunters, though they also need to protect their leader Rigoberto Urán. It’s a similar dilemma that they faced in the Giro with Hugh Cathy – it was never clear whether Alberto Bettiol or Ruben Guerreiro would be let off the leash or not in their pursuit of a stage victory. Bettiol got his but Guerreiro didn’t, and it would be a surprise to many that he’s even riding this Tour such is his anonymity. But this stage is made for him – if he’s in anything like his Giro form then he has a big chance. At 66/1, Guerreiro has to be a pick.

Magnus Cort too has a huge chance either in the break or if it’s brought back – the Dane is in top form after a stage win at the Route d’Occitanie and we definitely need to keep him onside, though the 16/1 about him seems a little skinny. The third of the boys in pink – Steffan Bissegger – had the worst of the conditions in the stage 5 TT, which must have been a big disappointment, but he’s coming off the back of a win in a pretty lumpy parcours in the Dauphiné a few weeks ago and it’s clear the young Swiss is more than just a time trial specialist – at triple figure odds he’s worth an interest. And EF are not done there – Michael Valgren, should he make the break, also has big chances.  

Team DSM are also stage hunting with a roster of strong candidates. Søren Kragh is a two-time Tour stage winner from last year and was a keen breaker on stage 6. We can assume he’ll want to get up the road again and could also be a major player.

Astana–PremierTech also have big options with Omar Fraile and Alex Aranburu, but there are 40 plus riders who I could also mention. Stage 7 is a day for enjoying the bike race rather than looking for a betting angle, there are simply too many variables. 

Stage 7 Bets

Sonny Colbrelli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Søren Kragh 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Michael Valgren 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Stefan Bissegger 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1

Posted 01.16 BST Fri 2nd July 2021