Stage 8 – Oyonnax > Le Grand-Bornand (150.8km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Matej MOHORIČ (33/1); 2nd Jasper STUYVEN (66/1); 3rd Magnus CORT (16/1)

Recommended:

Sonny Colbrelli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Søren Kragh 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Michael Valgren 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Stefan Bissegger 0.25pts each way (3 places) @200/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

It took almost 50km before an exceptionally strong break of 29 riders got clear that included yellow jersey wearer Van der Poel and fringe GC contenders Van Aert and Nibali. That meant UAE were put to work a day earlier than they’d ideally want – something they may pay for over the weekend, increasing Pogačar’s vulnerability to attacks. Sadly, the injured Roglič was dropped on the penultimate climb – his GC race is done. 

Bahrain–Victorious’ (and Slovenia’s) victories continued with the super impressive Mohorič – a very gettable selection, but you can’t back them all.

Stage 8 Preview

The first big mountain day of this year’s Tour that ends with three back-to-back first-category climbs which should reveal the current climbing hierarchy and shake out some GC pretenders.

All three climbs – the Côte de Mont-Saxonnex (5.7km at 8.3%), the Col de Romme (8.8km at 8.9%) and the Col de la Colombière (7.5km at 8.5%) have several sections of double-figure gradients, with the final 4km of the Colombière never dropping below 9% – this is where the decisive attacks will be launched and significant time can be lost or gained. 

The first five kilometres of the stage are uphill which should allow a strong break to form – whether they go all the way is in the balance, but they’ll need a hefty lead given the challenging slopes in the final third of the race, especially if GC attacks start early.

Contenders

Tadej Pogačar is now odds-on favourite to win the Tour (around 2/5) placing a heavy responsibility on UAE–Team Emirates to control the race. If their numbers dwindle too early he may be open to attacks and have to rely on other GC contenders to defend their own positions. The Slovenian appears to be the strongest rider in the race and is the rightful favourite at around 5/1, especially given how well he sprints from a reduced group (remember this is not a summit finish), but we’re yet to see anyone in the mountains so it’s a little premature to crown him just yet.

Though he was ultimately chased down by his ex-employers at Movistar (probably not a coincidence), Ineos Grenadiers’ Richard Carapaz looked very lively when he attacked from the main group of favourites on stage 7. Assuming those burned matches can be replaced overnight, then the Ecuadorian must be considered one of the favourites for this. He was excellent in the Tour de Suisse, claiming overall victory, and can also produce a punchy finishing kick if he arrives at the line with company. At more than twice the price of Pog, Carapaz is the first pick.

What chance the break? Of course it all depends on its constitution and how early it kicks off behind. But it certainly has more than a sniff, especially given that Sunday’s stage 9 appears to be more tilted towards a GC win. So a split staking plan is essential to cover both scenarios. 

Le Grand-Bornand was the site of Julian Alaphilippe’s first Tour stage win in 2018 and he’ll be looking for a repeat performance, though he’ll have to do it from the group of favourites rather than a breakaway which was the case three years ago. It will be interesting to see if he still has the explosiveness in his legs which will be needed to gap his rivals after such a draining, emotional week. I’m not so sure, in fact he may already have been dropped before the attacks begin. 

Second that day was Ion Izagirre who has a fully stamped breakaway licence being over half an hour down now on GC.. The Astana–PremierTech man is coming off solid displays at the Critérium de Dauphiné and the Tour de Romandie, as well as a stage win at his home Itzulia. At 22/1, Izagirre is the first breakaway pick.

Other quality climbers with time on GC include Nans Peters, Michael Woods, Thomas De Gendt, Warren Barguil, Dan Martin, Nairo Quintana, Neilson Powless, Simon Yates, and Wout Poels. We can expect a fair few of these trying for the early break, with Woods and Quintana probably having the best chance of finishing it off. It would be especially pleasing to see Nairo roll back the years – he’s looked decent and put in an attack on the Mûr-de-Bretagne, but like many suffered in the time trial. 

There is a group of excellent climbers – Miguel Ángel López, Ben O’Connor, Pello Bilbao, Guillaume Martin, and the BikeExchange duo of Lucas Hamilton and Esteban Chaves – between 7-9mins off Van der Poel, and therefore 3-5mins off Pogačar, on GC. If well policed, these riders should not be allowed in the break but that doesn’t rule them out of winning the stage from a late, unfollowed attack, perhaps on the penultimate first-category climb.

Some of these have been on the floor or struggled to stay with the front group, but Chaves has come away largely unscathed and his time deficit is down to his poor time trial. The Colombian was back to something like his best in the Tour of Catalunya where he bagged a stage victory and can be explosive on these double-digit ramps. At a decent 66/1, “Chavito” is a good late attacking option.

His compatriot López won the Mont Ventoux Challenge coming into the Tour so there are no worries on his climbing form. At around 14/1 his price is not big, but it’s probably worth adding him to the pot, where Woods at least should be able to practise his Spanish … and Basque. 

Stage 8 Bets

Richard Carapaz 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1

Ion Izagirre 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Esteban Chaves 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Miguel Ángel López 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1

Nairo Quintana 0.5pts each way (4 places) @22/1

Posted 22.56 BST Fri 2nd July 2021