Stage 10 – Ile d’Oléron le Château-d'Oléron > Ile de Ré Saint-Martin-de-Ré (168.5km)
Profile
Preview
A flat stage that by the profile should end in a sprint. However, the route hugs the coastline, and strong crosswinds may lead to a nervy, dramatic stage.
The forecast at the moment does not seem to indicate very strong winds, but the riders will still have to be vigilant as strong gusts could blow on the coast.
There are a few slight bends in the final 5km, but it’s otherwise a straight run to the line.
Contenders
I think we have to assume it will be a bunch sprint for betting purposes. Obviously, if crosswinds do cause havoc then it will favour the stronger riders such as Wout van Aert, Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan and Mads Pedersen.
But with the forecast as it is, and the need to make a judgement based on the information available at the time, I’m going to assume it’ll be the pure sprinters that battle it out.
Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan are the two fastest sprinters – both available around 3/1-7/2. It’s difficult to split them; I think Bennett is the most likely based on his more organized leadout, and Ewan has been badly positioned a couple of times already.
One of the best trains has been that of Sunweb, and Cees Bol is available at around 7/1; he’s been close, but that price seems a bit short.
As often on sprint stages, there isn’t a huge amount of value; Bennett and Ewan are the most likely, but I’m going to have a little punt elsewhere. Elia Viviana has shown nothing in this tour so far, but if this does turn out to be a pure sprinter final, and Viviani has ridden himself into a bit of form, then 25/1 is a huge price.
Elia Viviani 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1
Stage 10 Result
1st Sam Bennett; 2nd Caleb Ewan; 3rd Peter Sagan; 4th Elia Viviani
Recommended:
Elia Viviani 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1 – placed (+4pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
Chapeau! A nervous, windy day with splits and spills all over the place. Plenty of GC men – Pogačar, López, Guillaume Martin – all had to battle back onto the peloton at various stages. Bennett was led out brilliantly, and he executed the sprint to perfection. Ewan stuck to Bennet’s wheel but was unable this time to overhaul him. Viviani made the places and will be shorter for sprints from now on.
Total Stakes: 54.0pts; P/L: -16.4pts (-30.4%)
