Stage 11 – Châtelaillon-Plage > Poitiers (165.5km)
Profile
Preview
There are a few bumps along the way of this largely flat stage, including a short fourth-category climb (1.1km at 4.4%), but otherwise it’s almost certain to end in a sprint for the fast men.
There is a slight ramp uphill between the 3km and 2km mark but nothing that should worry Ewan and Bennett too much.
The most difficult aspect for sprint teams will be the technical nature of the final 5km – the leadouts will have to be on the ball to negotiate the twists and turns. A headwind is also forecast which will make it even harder for the breakaway to stay away.
Contenders
As expected, Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan are favourites in the book at around 9/4-5/2. Not a huge amount of value there, especially as it’s pretty difficult to split them. Bennett has the better leadout and is likely to position himself better, but Ewan probably has the faster top-end speed. Either way there’s not much in it, and we probably have to look for a bit of value elsewhere.
One of the best leadouts the Tour has been for Cees Bol – he’s got close but so far not quite finished the job off, and 6/1 isn’t hugely generous.
Peter Sagan appears to be getting better and better, but it would still be a stretch to see him winning in a pure sprint against the top two. This is reflected in his odds of around 14/1.
I mentioned after stage 10 that we wouldn’t see odds of 25/1 on Elia Viviani again. Well, I was wrong – he’s still available at 25s, which looks like value. If Viviani can hit anything like his top form then he has the speed to challenge for the win, so I’m going in again on Elia with the same bet.
Elia Viviani 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1
Stage 10 Result
1st Caleb Ewan; 2nd Sam Bennett; 3rd Wout van Aert; 4th Bryan Coquard
Recommended:
Elia Viviani 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @25/1 – lost (+2pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
No chapeau. Not quite the straightforward sprint predicted. Bora’s Lukas Pöstleberger fired off the front with 5km to go and had to be chased down by DCQS. And when Bob Jungels and Kasper Asgreen caught him and then pushed on it looked for a kilometre or so that Jungels might go all the way – on top form he may have done. Bora’s earlier pressure almost paid off with Sagan flying on the line. Unfortunately, he went for a gap that wasn’t there and shouldered Van Aert out of the way, which resulted in his relegation. Had there been a gap he might have won. As it was, Bennett hit the front only for Ewan to nip round his wheel and steal it, again.
Total Stakes: 56.0pts; P/L: -18.4pts (-32.9%)
