Stage 9 – Pau > Laruns (153km)
Profile
Preview
The second Pyrenean stage and another with a breakaway profile about it. There are two significant first-category climbs, the second of which – the Col de Marie-Blanque – peaks at 17km from the line and has bonus seconds at the top.
With a rest day tomorrow we should see a GC shake-up whether it’s for the stage or not. It will be ridden hard with Jumbo-Visma most likely setting the pace to set up Roglič.
There is a fourth-category climb 9km from the start which should allow a breakaway to form – if it doesn’t then we may have to wait until the lower slopes of the first-category Col de la Hourcėre as it’s pretty flat up to that point and the lighter riders will struggle to build a gap.
Contenders
We’re looking at similar profiles as yesterday – classy riders with good climbing legs and time on GC. I’m going with Davide Formolo, Pierra Latour and Harold Tejada again though I have my doubts whether any of them will be given licence by their teams to get in the break. Latour may also be carrying an injury. But should they get in the break, they’re sure to be strong favourites to take the stage.
Pau was the home of Team Sky DS Nicolas Portal who tragically died of a heart attack earlier this year. There will be tributes paid at the start line, and I’m pretty sure Ineos will want to get a man up the road for a chance of honouring Portal with a stage win. Looking at the prices, one stands out – Pavel Sivakov is available at a huge 400/1. Sivakov came into the tour in great form from the Dauphiné and looked a potential top 10 GC candidate until a nightmare start in Nice. He came down hard at least twice, and he’s been nursing his injuries ever since at the back of the peloton, which is the reason for the huge price. That said, he’s been very positive on social media, and if he’s anywhere near back to his best is huge value at that price.
There is of course an element of luck about who makes the breakaway but the early third-category should ensure the better climbers make it. Julian Alaphilippe is the favourite now he has time on GC but at around 7/2 is very short, and it’s still not clear if he’s on top form. One thing is certain for Alaphilippe backers is that he will keep trying for another stage win for the remainder of the race. Other likely candidates are Alexey Lutsenko, Lennard Kämna, Dani Martínez and Thomas De Gendt – you could easily see any one of those lifting their arms at the end, but you can’t back them all!
Davide Formolo 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1
Pierre Latour 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1
Harold Tejada 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @200/1
Pavel Sivakov 3pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @400/1
Stage 9 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar; 2nd Primož Roglič; 3rd Marc Hirschi; 4th Egan Bernal
Recommended:
Davide Formolo 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1 – lost (-4pts)
Pierre Latour 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-4pts)
Harold Tejada 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @200/1 – lost (-2pts)
Pavel Sivakov 3pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @400/1 – lost (-6pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
No chapeau. Serves me right for going all in on a breakaway win. Jumbo-Visma wanted to make it hard all day and chased everything down for the first 60km. A break formed but was only given a minute or so. Annoyingly, Sivakov did have a couple of goes only to be brought back – a good bet on balance. On the lower slopes of the Col de la Hourcėre, Marc Hirschi decided to attack solo with 90km to go. An incredibly brave move, and for a long time it looked like he might make it home for a famous solo win. A GC battle ensued up the final climb with Yates dropped in the yellow jersey. Roglič, Pogačar, Bernal and Landa formed a front quartet with Pogačar winning the sprint to the line having caught Hirschi inside the final two kilometres. A great stage.
Total Stakes: 52.0pts; P/L: -20.4pts (-39.2%)
