Stage 3 - Nice > Sisteron (198km)

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Preview

This looks on paper like a nailed-on sprint stage – and as those are few and far between this year it makes it even more likely to happen.

There are a number of smaller categorized climbs along the route, but none are severe enough or close enough to the finish to be decisive.

Deceuninck - Quick Step, Lotto Soudal and perhaps NTT will work on the front to peg and then bring back the breakaway, who will probably be more interested in early KOM points than realistic ambitions of a stage win.

The final is more or less flat but technical, and therefore should favour those with a strong train to keep them in good position.

Contenders

As on stage 1, Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan are the clear favourites as the fastest guys in the race. Unlike stage 1, this should actually end in a genuine sprint without the carnage beforehand. So, we should be able to better judge the sprinter hierarchy after today to use in future stages. Both are around 11/4 which is on the margin of backable and if I had to choose would go for Bennett. Ewan lost two of his team (Gilbert and Degenkolb) on Saturday and also came down himself, so may be diminished in the sprint.

However, I’m more tempted by Giacomo Nizzolo at 12/1. He showed his form and toughness to be up there on stage 1 and actually got a bit squeezed between Mads Pederson and Cees Bol which probably cost him a place. Speaking of those two, I think they’re likely to be found out on a purer speed finish at prices that don’t appeal – and I’d add Alexander Kristoff and Peter Sagan to that group.

As mentioned on stage 1, it’s worth keeping an eye on Elia Viviani to see if he can get back to top form, and he wasn’t far off on stage 1 making him one to consider at 16/1. In conclusion, I think Bennett is the most likely, Nizzolo the better value.

Giacomo Nizzolo 2.5pts ew (1/4 odds 1 2 3) @12/1

Stage 3 Result

1st Caleb Ewan; 2nd Sam Bennett; 3rd Giacomo Nizzolo; 4th Hugo Hofstetter

Recommended:

Giacomo Nizzolo 2.5pts ew (1/4 odds 1 2 3) @12/1 - placed (+5.0pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half chapeau. Bennett hit the front a little early in a headwind. Ewan weaved his way through and hit the line half a bike length ahead, timing his sprint superbly. It’s worth watching the overhead as you can see not only how much more speed Ewan is carrying, but also how close he came to running straight up the back of Peter Sagan – incredible reactions at frighteningly high speeds. Nizzolo completed the places to ensure a stage profit, but he was way behind the front two. Hugo Hofstetter of Israel Start-Up Nation was a surprise fourth ahead of Sagan and Edward Theuns (who was the chosen sprinter ahead of Mads Pedersen – worth noting that it’s not always clear who will be led out for Trek). Kristoff and Viviani were nowhere this time.

Total Stakes: 13.0pts; P/L: +6.0pts (+46.2%)