Stage 4 - Sisteron > Orcières-Merlette (160km)

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Preview

A stage that ends in a first-category summit finish would ordinarily indicate that the breakaway would be reeled in, and a GC battle would follow. But there are some caveats to that scenario actually playing out.

Firstly, this is only the fourth stage of the tour – how much energy do teams want to burn up so early in the race, and how much do GC contenders want to show their hand?

The final climb is a pretty uniform 7km at 6.7% average, with no tough double-digit sections that would be prime attacking zones. Given that, it’s unlikely that the time gaps between the GC guys will be significant on the line, and therefore is it worth running your team into the ground for not much gain?

We also don’t really know the condition of the two big favourites, Primož Roglič and Egan Bernal, after their problems at the Dauphiné, and it may be that their respective teams would rather give them a few more days recovery than have an all out battle this early.

There are already a number of riders who are far enough behind in GC to not be a threat to Alaphilippe in yellow should they make it into the breakaway, and we could very well see two races – one for the stage, and another for the GC men. It all depends on the motivation and instructions of the contender teams – Jumbo-Visma, Ineos Grenadiers, and DCQS, who hold the jersey.

Contenders

This is a tricky one. Julian Alaphilippe is favourite again as he was on stage 2, but at 9/2 doesn’t really appeal given how many different scenarios could play out. It’s not impossible that if he starts feeling it on the final climb, he will deliberately sit up to buy some time for breakaways going forward.

I can’t touch Primož Roglič or Egan Bernal for the reasons above. Adam Yates looked impressive on stage 2, and on an uphill finish may have an edge over Alaphilippe. Yates may also be given a little more leeway should he attack on the final climb; 12/1 is attractive.

Thibaut Pinot, Richard Carapaz and Tadej Pogačar all have good uphill kicks that could see them take the stage should they all come to the line together. But Pinot came down hard on stage 1 and may still be struggling, and Carapaz is here to work for Bernal, so is likely to be coming into the race undercooked given he was planning to lead Ineos in the Giro. Pogačar does make some appeal at 14/1. 

Looking at breakaway candidates, we need to focus on riders that are currently five minutes plus behind on GC, are likely not to be on babysitting duty, but also crucially have climbing legs to finish the job off.  Among those are Lennard Kämna, a stage winner in the Dauphiné but also struggling with crash injuries, Pavel Sivakov, Dan Martin – both also recovering from injuries from stage 1 and the Dauphiné respectively – as well as Ben Hermans, Omar Fraile, Thomas De Gendt, and Alessandro De Marchi. 

On balance, I think the break will be brought back – there will be plenty of opportunities later in the race when the breaks will be given their day, and enough teams should either fancy a stage win, or want to test out and potentially expose any weaknesses in the GC men. I’m going for Adam Yates to back up his form on stage 2 and attack early on the final climb. If enough of the others look at each other then he can hold on till the finish line, and may even end up in yellow.

Adam Yates 2pts ew (1/4 odds 1 2 3) @12/1

Stage 4 Result

1st Primož Roglič; 2nd Tadej Pogačar; 3rd Guillaume Martin; 4th Nairo Quintana

Recommended:

Adam Yates 2pts ew (1/4 odds 1 2 3) @12/1 - lost (-4.0pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No Chapeau. The breakaway was never given much more than 3 minutes, with DCQS taking responsibility on the front of the peloton. Jumbo-Visma took it up at the foot of the climb and drove a hard pace to deter attacks – a couple tried, but didn’t get very far. A group of 20 arrived together at the flamme rouge. Guillaume Martin put in a good dig with 500m to go but was tagged by Roglič, setting up a sprint to the line. Alaphilippe could have made the places but sat up a little once the win was gone – glad I wasn’t on each way at 9/2! Yates never got a blow in. The biggest takeaway from the stage is the form of Roglic, who seems to have recovered well from his fall in the Dauphiné – surprising considering there were rumours he might not even start the tour.

Total Stakes: 17.0pts; P/L: +2.0pts (+11.8%)