Stage 5 - Gap > Privas (183km)
Profile
Preview
This is a flat stage but with a short, fourth-category climb (2.7km at 4.2%) with 16km to go, and then a two-step rise over the final 4km which is also quite technical, making it not entirely straightforward for the sprint teams to control.
The outcome will be determined by how fast the field is driven into that final climb in order to put some of the sprinters into difficulties or indeed if there is a late attack into it.
Contenders
Who might want to put the foot down? – Bora for Peter Sagan, JV for Wout Van Aert (though we don’t know if he’ll be allowed to go for stage victory), Mitchelton-Scott for Luka Mezgec maybe. The problem with that plan is that the sprint favourites Sam Bennett, Caleb Ewan and Giacomo Nizzolo are more than capable of making it over what is not a particularly difficult rise – especially with their trains dragging them along.
We saw a clear sprint hierarchy in stage 3 and there’s nothing to suggest they won’t come home in the same order again. Only now Ewan is shorter at 13/8, and the 12/1 on Nizzolo on stage 3 is now a skinny 8/1. Bennett at 7/2 makes slightly more appeal but are we really just backing him for a likely place and small points loss? I’m going to sit this one out and recommend no bet as I don’t see anything of value and would rather use the points on more attractive betting heats in the mountains. I see it being a Ewan-Bennett 1-2.
No bet
Stage 5 Result
1st Wout van Aert; 2nd Cees Bol; 3rd Sam Bennett; 4th Peter Sagan
Recommended:
No bet
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
No Chapeau. Of course it didn’t quite play out as advertised. In fact, it was a very strange stage with no breakaway forming all day – not even a lone rider from one of the smaller teams for some TV exposure. This was an indication as to how futile and tiring a day in the break would have been and also maybe how much the peloton hankered for a slow, stress-free day. The last 10km was disorganized and the best sprint leadout wasn’t for Bennett or Ewan but from Sunweb for Cees Bol who finished an impressive second. But it was WVA who was given license and nailed it with excellent positioning and a well-timed kick. Bennett said afterwards he was distracted by making sure he got past Sagan to take the green jersey and lost focus on the stage win. Ewan was too far back to land a blow. There was drama after the stage when Alaphilippe was given a 20-second penalty for taking a feed within the final 20km, handing the yellow jersey to Adam Yates.
Total Stakes: 17.0pts; P/L: +2.0pts (+11.8%)
