Stage 6 – Le Teil > Mont Aigoual (191km)
Profile
Preview
Breakaway or GC stage? – that is the question. It doesn’t have the classic profile of a breakaway stage, nor is it deep into the race when breakaways tend to get their chance and more candidates have lost time on GC.
The first-category Col de la Lusette that peaks with 14km to go is tough enough to make a difference (11.7km at 7.3%) with steeper sections near the top, so there ought to be GC attacks regardless of whether it’s for the stage or not. There are also bonus seconds at the top which might interest some.
But the finish line at Mont Aigoual is further up the road and at a much steadier incline (8.3km at 4%) meaning that if you don’t get a gap on the Lusette, it’s unlikely that you're going to make one after.
On balance, I think the breakaway will be brought back but it’s not guaranteed, so I think it’s worth having selections for both scenarios.
Contenders
Primož Roglič is predictably the 7/2 favourite as we’ve already seen that his form is good and know how strong he is in these tough sprints. We really are looking primarily at those that showed their form on stage 4 – so, Tadej Pogačar should be in the mix, but I like the two that finished third and fourth that day at more attractive prices. Guillaume Martin attacked and briefly gapped the leaders on the run-in two days ago, and had he timed the kick a little better could easily have won. He’s shown that he’s in top form and at 33s he’s a bet. Nairo Quintana is also showing better form than he has in years, and even though he’s unlikely to win in a sprint, is value at 50/1. Miguel Ángel López, Adam Yates, or even someone like Bauke Mollema could get in the mix if he survives the climb.
Julian Alaphilippe is available at around 11/1 and it all depends on how much sting the climb takes out of his legs. We saw on stage 4 that with a hard pace on the front he didn’t quite have the kick to finish the job off (although would’ve probably finished third had he pushed to the line). It’s also a sign that maybe he’s not on his very best form of the kind he showed last year – which is a harsh metric to judge him by.
Breakaway candidates with five minutes plus on GC and can also climb well enough to finish the job off include Warren Barguil, Alexey Lutsenko, Ion Izagirre, Ilnur Zakarin, Harold Tejada, Lennard Kämna, Omar Fraile and the constant breakaway candidate Thomas De Gendt. But I like the look of another one – Jesús Herrada at 25s was looking all the world the winner of the Spanish Nationals last week only for a combination of Luis León Sánchez and an untimely mechanical to deny him. Also, he has a decent kick which is handy should he come to the line with a group.
Guillaume Martin 1pt ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @33/1
Nairo Quintana 1pt ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @50/1
Jesús Herrada 2pts ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @25/1 & 28/1
Stage 6 Result
1st Alexey Lutsenko; 2nd Jesús Herrada; 3rd Greg Van Avermaet; 4th Neilson Powless
Recommended:
Guillaume Martin 1pt ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @33/1 – lost (-2pts)
Nairo Quintana 1pt ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-2pts)
Jesús Herrada 2pts ew (1/5 odds 1 2 3 4) @25/1 & 28/1 – placed (+8.6pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
Half Chapeau. I got it wrong that the breakaway would not contend the finish but my insurance pick, Herrada, made the break and showed real grit to battle back for a runners-up spot having been dropped several times on the climb. Lutsenko showed his class, always looked the likeliest from the breakaway and finished the job off well. The impressive young Neilson Powless – the first Native American to compete in the Tour de France – finished fourth. Behind, as predicted, a similarly large group to stage 4 came to the line together. Alaphilippe made a jump in the final and stole an extra second.
Total Stakes: 25.0pts; P/L: +6.6pts (+26.4%)
