Stage 7 – Millau > Lavaur (168km)

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Preview

A flat stage with a few bumps but one that should end in a sprint.

There’s a third-category climb in the first 10km which should allow a break to form quickly, and then there’s a full 60km from the final categorized climb for sprint teams (DCQS, Lotto, Sunweb, NTT) to bring the break back or help their fast man to get back on.

That said, we’ve already had two stages (1 & 5) where the fastest men – Ewan and Bennett – have failed to make the most of the opportunity.

But logically the above scenario is the most likely, so we’re looking at the same men again and probably struggling to find value.

Contenders

Caleb Ewan was sensational in Sisteron, weaving his way through a tight gap to grab the win. But he was helped by staying out of the wind until the very end, and perhaps by Bennett jumping a little early. He went missing a little on stage 5 and it’ll be interesting to see if he can pull off such a perfectly timed late kick again. He’s favourite at 3/1 and probably is just about the fastest, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’ll win as we’ve seen. 

Sam Bennett’s train seems a bit more organized than Ewan’s; he has the confidence of riding in the green jersey now, and assuming he gets a fair run could win his first tour stage. I prefer Bennett at 7/2 for this. 

Others with chances include Giacomo Nizzolo, Cees Bol, Wout van Aert, Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard and Elia Viviani, but all things being equal they should be fighting for places rather than the win.

Sam Bennett 3pts win @7/2

Stage 7 Result

1st Wout van Aert; 2nd Edvald Boasson Hagen; 3rd Bryan Coquard; 4th Christophe Laporte

Recommended:

Sam Bennett 3pts win @7/2 - lost (-3pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No Chapeau. Well, I didn’t predict Sagan setting his Bora team the task of burning it up full gas for the first 100km, but that’s pretty much what they did. Desperate to gain an advantage over Bennett in the green jersey competition, Bora ripped it up the first third-category climb and split the peloton leaving plenty of sprinters off the back. Having achieved their initial objective, they committed to keeping the pace high all day, and those that were dropped could not get back on. Bennett held on longer than most – Asgreen and Jungels very nearly brought him back on but were ultimately denied. Bennett admitted afterwards that he’d been caught out of position when Bora turned the heat up. Sagan was able to take second behind Trentin in the intermediate sprint and was looking great to plunder more on the finish line only for a mechanical in the last 200m to ruin his chances. All that work for not much gain. “F@#%ing cycling”, as Sagan said afterwards. Van Aert was the fastest man left in the front group, which had been further diminished in earlier crosswinds, to grab his second stage win of the tour – not bad for someone working as a domestique.

Total Stakes: 28.0pts; P/L: +3.6pts (+12.9%)