Stage 8 – Cazères-sur-Garonne > Loudenvielle (141km)
Profile
Preview
The first of two Pyrenean mountain stages this weekend, and although there are no guarantees, both profiles look like potential breakaway stages. Time bonuses (8, 5 and 2 seconds) have been placed at the top of the final climb which might motivate GC teams to pull it back together, but it’s more likely to be contested by accomplished climbers who are not an overall threat and as far as we know have avoided painful spills.
We could also see the mountains classification take shape which at the moment is led by AG2R’s Benoît Cosnefroy. He’s unlikely to hold on to it once we hit the high mountains, but he’ll be motivated to wear the polka dots for as long as possible. Battling for the win or not, we may see a GC selection up the hors-categorie Port de Balès (11.7km at 7.7%). There are sections over 10% and any weaknesses will be exposed assuming the pace is kept high which Jumbo-Visma may well want to do.
The breakaway might take a while to form as the start is pretty flat. There’s a slight rise at around 20km and another at 30km which may help, but then we’re getting close to the first intermediate sprint at 42.5km. DCQS could be motivated to keep it together until then to allow Sam Bennett to contest the sprint, and then they’ll be on the lower slopes of the first climb of the day – the first-category Col de Menté (6.9km at 8.1%) – when a break will definitely get away if it hasn’t already done so.
Contenders
The bookies have installed Primož Roglič as favourite, with Tadej Pogačar, Julian Alaphilippe and Adam Yates next. Given the comments above, I’m not sure that there’s any value with them as we’re relying on the breakaway being brought back. If it’s only fifty-fifty for a GC stage win, then I think it’s better to choose a few likely breakaway candidates at much bigger prices.
Dauphiné winner Dani Martínez is available around 14/1, and assuming he’s fine after his fall will be looking for stage wins and possibly the mountains jersey from now on. Other breakaway-bingo candidates who might have the legs to finish it off are Ilnur Zakarin, Nicholas Roche, Lennard Kämna, Nans Peters and Dan Martin. But I’ve looked elsewhere: Davide Formolo has been in great form of late with a stage win in the Dauphiné and second in Strade Bianchi. Hopefully, he’s allowed his head and not on babysitting duty for Pogačar.
White jersey winner from two years ago, Pierre Latour, has the ability to finish this off but similarly may have to stay with Romain Bardet. We might as well also throw in perennial breakaway artist Thomas De Gendt – he’s seemed keen to be at the pointy end when breakaways have been forming. Finally, I’m throwing in Astana’s Harold Tejada. He finished an excellent sixth at the recent Mont Ventoux Challenge, ahead of his leader Miguel Ángel López and is appealing at big odds.
Davide Formolo 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1
Pierre Latour 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1
Thomas De Gendt 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @66/1
Harold Tejada 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @250/1
Stage 8 Result
1st Nans Peters; 2nd Tom Skujiņš; 3rd Carlos Verona; 4th Ilnur Zakarin
Recommended:
Davide Formolo 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1 – lost (-2pts)
Pierre Latour 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-2pts)
Thomas De Gendt 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @66/1 – lost (-2pts)
Harold Tejada 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @250/1 – lost (-2pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
No chapeau. It was a breakaway stage as predicted, but I didn’t manage to pick the right ones. Surprisingly, the break formed early and was given over 10 minutes. Nans Peters was the strongest out of them and took a great win. Zakarin could have challenged but struggled to stay upright on the descents. There was GC action behind with Pogačar attacking to claw back some of the time he lost in the crosswinds earlier in the race. Yates struggled to keep pace with the best which doesn’t bode well, and Pinot cracked completely, perhaps still feeling the effects of his tumble in Nice.
Total Stakes: 36.0pts; P/L: -4.4pts (-12.2%)
