Stage 3 – Santo Domingo de Silos > Picón Blanco (202.8km)

Profile

Stage 2 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (9/2) 

2nd Fabio Jakobsen (9/4)

3rd Michael Matthews (33/1)

Stage 2 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @7/4

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. Philipsen completed a hat-trick of victories for Alpecin–Fenix on the first sprint stage at each Grand Tour this season (after Tim Merlier’s victories in the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France). He got a bit lucky that a gap opened up on the rail inside Molano, but his team did impressive work to put him in prime position and the win was well-deserved after his near misses at the Tour.

Having worked on the front all day, Groupama–FDJ fell apart in the last few kilometres with Démare way out of position and unable to land a blow – they’ve got some thinking to do before the next sprint opportunity.

Stage 3 Preview

The GC men come out to play early with our first mountain stage and a summit finish up Picón Blanco that many of the riders went over just 10 days ago at the Vuelta a Burgos. The first-category climb is 7.6km long with the final 4km rarely dipping below double-digit gradients meaning significant time can be lost or gained by the leading players.

The third-category Puerto del Manquillo (2.8km at 6.3%) is summited within the first 40km which will allow the breakaway to form if it hasn’t already done so, and the break may contest the final should Jumbo–Visma decide not to defend the red jersey so early in the race.

Contenders

Unsurprisingly, overall race favourite Primož Roglič is also a strong favourite for the stage at around 5/2. Of course he’s an immensely good climber, is in good form, and crucially has a good kick on him which could be vital as a predicted headwind on the final climb may blunt some attacks and see a small group come to the line together. Jumbo–Visma’s tactics will be interesting – how much do they want to invest in controlling a tough 200km day so early in the race? And will any other teams such as Ineos Grenadiers or Bahrain–Victorious lend a hand in pegging the break? 

Those two teams have serious options for this – Ineos’ GC trident of Egan Bernal, Richard Carapaz and Adam Yates are second, third, and fourth favourites for the stage. Bernal showed to be a little off his best at the Vuelta a Burgos and will no doubt be looking to peak for the tough final week. The golden-helmeted Carapaz has been on a heavy schedule since June and will need to measure his efforts to ensure something is left in the tank by the end.

Of the three, Yates at 12/1 looks the better option. The man from Bury has had a relatively light racing schedule this year with the Vuelta singled out as his main target. The winner of the Volta a Catalunya lost time in the splits following the crash 4km out on stage 2 and is already 51secs behind Roglič on GC – he has to take every opportunity to gain time and this is one. At 12/1, Yates is our first pick.

Yates’ fellow Lancastrian and podium finisher from last year, Hugh Carthy, also lost time on stage two and finds himself over a minute in arrears. He’s off the back of an impressive win on the final stage of the Vuelta a Burgos, beating many of his rivals here. The steep nature of this climb should suit and the 20/1 about him is attractive. 

Another who showed well in the Vuelta a Burgos was Team DSM’s Romain Bardet. He won the stage that passed over the Pincón Blanco, and despite a spill on the descent, still held off the pack of chasers to take the victory. 

The overall winner in Burgos and a winner of a summit finish up Picón Blanco four years ago is Bahrain–Victorious’ Mikel Landa; he’s 22/1 for the stage. As mentioned, they come here with a loaded team and their tactics will be interesting. Any one of Jack Haig, Mark Padun, Gino Mäder, or Giro runner-up Damiano Caruso could be used as a foil for Landa and attack on the final climb. Of those, Haig is probably the most capable of finishing it off and is available at around 40/1.

It seems unlikely that Jumbo–Visma will want to hold the red jersey for the whole three weeks, and if no team decides to ride once the break has been established then we could see it going all the way. Plenty might fancy taking a punt on that and try to get up the road. Cofidis’ Jesus Herrada is one that springs to mind, but I’ve plumped for a small interest at 100/1 on Lotto Soudal’s Andreas Kron as our breakaway saver. The talented young Dane is already a stage winner in the Tour de Suisse and Volta a Catalunya this year and would be a big player if the break contests the final. 

Stage 3 Bets

Adam Yates 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1

Hugh Carthy 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Posted 21.37 BST Sun 15th Aug 2021