Stage 4 – El Burgo de Osma > Molina de Aragón (163.9km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Rein Taaramäe (200/1)

2nd Joe Dombrowski (80/1)

3rd Kenny Elissonde (200/1)

Stage 3 Bets

Adam Yates 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1

Hugh Carthy 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. As suspected, Jumbo–Visma were not prepared to flog themselves all day to keep hold of the red jersey and were happy to gift it to whoever proved strongest from a quality break. That was Rein Taaramäe who came home for his second career Vuelta stage win, a decade after his first.

A block headwind stunted attacks from the GC men on the Picón Blanco and a bigger than expected group of nine arrived together, though Enric Mas stole a few seconds at the line. Most of the favourites were in that group, however, Hugh Carthy (21secs), Romain Bardet, Aleksandr Vlasov (29secs), and most notably Richard Carapaz (1min) all lost time.

Stage 4 Preview

A designated flat stage but the pure sprinters will not have it all their own way because this stage is all about a 5% uphill drag for the last 500m up to the line. That should pique the interest of strong uphill sprinters, puncheurs, and maybe even some GC men. Either way, it promises to be explosive with positioning going into the last few kilometres crucial before it all kicks off once passed the flamme rouge.

Crosswinds could be an issue but as far as predicting the race we’ll have to assume that the sprint teams control as they did on stage 2 and deliver their men with a shot of victory.

Contenders

The winner of stage 2 Jasper Philipsen clearly showed he’s in good form and an uphill final is not an issue for him. His team did a great job positioning him on the front and a repeat performance here could see him doubling up; Philipsen is the favourite at around 9/4 which is short enough considering how open it might become.   

Things went wrong for Groupama–FDJ on stage 2 with Arnaud Démare unable to land a blow leaving a question mark over his current form. The French team could easily storm back and deliver Démare to the win and so choosing him as a bet selection has to be purely based on his price and whether or not it reflects some value – I’m not convinced the 4/1 about him does that. 

Fabio Jakobsen could’ve easily got his nose ahead on that first sprint stage had he chosen a different line, so his second place doesn’t necessarily put him behind Philipsen in the sprinter’s hierarchy just yet. But this uphill finish isn’t ideal for him and again the shortish 4/1 does not appeal. 

UAE–Team Emirates have an interesting decision for stage 4 with both Juan Sebastián Molano and four-time Vuelta stage winner Matteo Trentin both in with chances. With a proper flat day coming up on stage 5, I wonder if the Italian might be given the nod for this one, or more likely they’ll both have a go. Trentin is five times the price of Molano which for me offers a bit of value and is worth a pop at 50/1.

But the main selection is Team BikeExchange’s Michael Matthews. His combination of speed and strength make this a perfect final for him. He showed really well on stage 2 and should be well positioned by Luka Mezgec to deliver his first Grand Tour win in four years; he’s in at 7/1. 

Astana–PremierTech’s Alex Aranburu had a long wait in the hot seat in the opening prologue only to have the win snatched away from him by the last man off the ramp, Primož Roglič. That must have hurt for a man who’s been knocking on the door of a maiden Grand Tour win for a couple of years. This presents another big opportunity for the Basque man, though he’d probably prefer a lumpier parcours to deaden the legs of the fast men. Still, at 20/1 he has serious chances.

Davide Cimolai was super impressive in the Giro earlier in the year, with two runners-up spots and two more top fives. He hasn’t shown much since but this finish is made for him. If he rediscovers his Giro legs then the Italian could go close and is available at a best price of 40/1.

Stage 4 Bets

Michael Matthews 2pts each way (4 places) @7/1

Matteo Trentin 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 21.43 BST Mon 16th Aug 2021