Stage 2 – Caleruega > Burgos (166.7km)

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Stage 1 Result

1st Primož ROGLIČ (2/5)

2nd Alex ARANBURU (50/1)

3rd Jan TRATNIK (12/1)

Stage 1 Bets

Jan Tratnik 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1 - 3rd

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Half-chapeau. Astana–PremierTech’s Alex Aranburu sat in the hot seat for a long time having set a super impressive time - many were quicker at the intermediate split but lost it all on the descent and run-in to the line. He saw off everyone apart from the stage favourite Roglič who came home in typically dominant style.

It’s unusual for the overall tour favourite to be in the leader’s jersey after stage 1, but this is the Vuelta and not the Tour de France so media attention and team pressure is a level below, and the strong looking Jumbo–Visma team could theoretically hold it all the way to Santiago de Compostela.

In short, Roglič looks good with Landa at 39secs the biggest GC loser, not helped by arriving late to the start gate – a strange error for someone so experienced in the first stage of a Grand Tour.

Stage 2 Preview

Unusually, there’s some encouragement for the fast men in this year’s Vuelta parcours, and although we don’t have Sam Bennett, Caleb Ewan, Dylan Groenewegen or the resurgent Mark Cavendish, we still have a good crop of top level sprinters. Here’s their first opportunity with a pretty flat, uncomplicated stage which should end in a sprint. 

There’s a 90 degree left-hander with 1.6km to go where positioning, as ever, will be critical, but otherwise it’s a flat run to the line and we ought to get a good feeling for which teams have a well-drilled leadout and the overall sprinter hierarchy. There’s talk of crosswinds that some teams may want to exploit, but the balance is tilted towards a sprint finish with plenty of fresh, motivated teams to set up a shootout.

Contenders

Without doubt the best and most experienced sprint train on the startlist is that of Groupama–FDJ for French favourite Arnaud Démare. After falls and sickness he had a disappointing Tour de France. and he’ll be super motivated to put that behind him and show his class here. The team is all-in for the four-time stage winner in last year’s Giro and they’re sure to deliver him into the final 200m with a good shot of victory. Démare has not raced since the Tour so his form is a guess, but he should be there in the dust-up and is the justified stage favourite at 7/4.

It’s immensely pleasing to say that Fabio Jakobsen is second favourite for the stage at around 9/4. What a miraculous recovery after life-threatening injuries from the horror crash back in August of 2020. Eight months out, an induced coma and several facial surgeries later, the Dutchman stormed back to winning way a couple of weeks ago at the Tour de Wallonie. It’s impossible to know the mental challenges that he overcame as well as the physical ones that made those wins possible, but a huge chapeau all the same. He has some super strong leadout riders in Černý, Štybar, Van Lerberghe and Sénéchal, and the Belgian powerhouse team are guaranteed to put Jakobsen in prime position come the sprint. It’s easy to forget that he was one of the fastest men in the world before the crash, and this is a chance to cement his place back at the top table. The heart is definitely with a Jakobsen win.

Alpecin Fenix’s Jasper Philipsen deserved a win at the Tour de France – three seconds, three thirds – and but for a reborn Mark Cavendish would’ve swept up a number of wins. These are his first races back after the Tour and he rolled in a full 40secs behind the rest of the field in the opening TT. That could be a sign of bad legs or saving himself for stage 2, I’m sure we’ll find out. Philipsen was understandably distraught after the Tour having come so close to a maiden Grand Tour win and should be extra motivated here. Without the imposing presence of Mathieu van der Poel and lead sprinter Tim Merlier, this is Philipsen’s chance to make a mark.

Colombia’s Juan Sebastián Molano – the poisson pilote for Fernando Gaviria at the Giro – is the man in form that could cause an upset. The pair never seemed in sync back in May but he did look quick and showed his sprinter powers with two stage wins at the Vuelta a Burgos two weeks ago, albeit against lesser opposition. You can have 11/2 about Molano.

I expect the winner to come from those four but it’s an intriguing puzzle and you can’t write off a surprise winner as there are question marks about all of the leading contenders. 

Michael Matthews and Luka Mezgec for BikeExchange could both compete for a place but probably need a tougher day to play for the win. Estonian Martin Laas is coming off the back of a win in the Arctic Race of Norway, though I’m not sure that’s great preparation for the 40 degree heat that the riders are going to meet this week in Spain. 

It has to be a tentative bet as we have no idea of form, but FDJ’s intentions are clear - Démare has the leadout he wants and I expect the French team to deliver.

Stage 2 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @7/4

Posted 21.27 BST Sat 14th Aug 2021