Stage 10 – Roquetas de Mar > Rincón de la Victoria (189km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Damiano Caruso (25/1)

2nd Primož Roglič (7/2) 

3rd Enric Mas (33/1)

4th Jack Haig (125/1)

Stage 9 Bets

Enric Mas 0.5 pts each way (4 places) @33/1 - 3rd

Egan Bernal 0.5pts each way (3 places) @25/1

Mark Padun 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Mini-chapeau. A quality breakaway including Bardet and Majka finally formed, but it was Giro runner-up Caruso who went solo just as the break looked like getting caught early. However, Ineos, who were driving the peloton hard, pulled the plug having failed to shake out enough Jumbo–Visma riders.

They took it up again on the final climb, dropping Landa, Vlasov, and whittling the GC group down to a select few. Yates attacked a few times but was ultimately overrun by Roglič, who to be fair looks a million dollars, and Mas who looks the best of the rest. At the first rest day, the GC hierarchy is a lot clearer but plenty can change in the last two weeks.

Stage 10 Preview

An interesting profile where a few different scenarios could play out. The main feature of course is the second-category Puerto de Almáchar which has a modest average gradient of 4.9% but actually touches double digits in parts, offering perfect launchpads for attacks.

It peaks out 15km from the line then it’s downhill all the way meaning anyone with a gap should be able to hold off any chasers. If not, we’ll get a reduced sprint for the honours. The constituents of the break will determine if it’s chased down or not, and we will no doubt see a big fight to get into it on the early rolling terrain.

Contenders

The ideal profile for the winner of this stage is a rider who is punchy enough to live with the explosions on the last climb, but also has a fast sprint to finish it off from a small group. There are a few about. 

Team BikeExchange’s Michael Matthews exhibited his exceptional climbing form up the Alto de la Montaña Cullera on stage 6, finishing sixth ahead of many GC contenders, and we know that the Aussie is one of the fastest in a sprint. On balance, it’s probably better for stage hopefuls to get in the break as a critical mass of strong riders will be difficult to bring back, but that’ll be easier said than done. 

The winner on that stage 6 was EF Education–Nippo’s Magnus Cort. Ditto for the Dane – a great climber with a super sprint. Those two are the standout options and are rightly at the top of the market.

Deceuninck–Quick-Step have options. Andrea Bagioli is explosive enough to potentially gap the sprinters and come to the line in a smaller group of puncheur/climbers. So too the talented Mauri Vansevenant, who we haven’t seen a great deal of which is a shame. At 40/1 compared to Bagioli’s 12/1 – who apparently also had a bit of a spill early on stage 9 – it’s the Belgian who offers a bit more value.

Matteo Trentin looked in top form on stage 7, single-handedly driving the breakaway on to try to put his UAE–Emirates teammate, Jan Polanc, into red. The four-time Vuelta stage winner might have his eye on this one and is also in at 16/1.  

With Alexandr Vlasov now effectively out of GC contention, Astana–PremierTech are free to stage hunt and they have plenty of options – Omar Fraile, Luis León Sánchez, Ion Izaggire, and the best option for this, Alex Aranburu, who continues to knock on the door of a first Grand Tour stage win. 

This is yet another stage where Andreas Kron has a big chance. He can climb, has a sprint, and we’re now committed to backing Kron off a cliff until he comes home in front. At 22/1, the Dane is in … again. 

Ineos Grenadiers’ best two options are probably Jhonatan Narváez and Tom Pidcock, though don’t rule out Richard Carapaz having a dig. The Brit has been quiet by his standards and looks to be here for the experience, but if he’s found his legs on the rest day, this stage has a final that’s perfect for him. Narváez might be looking towards the hillier days later in the week, although all of this is contingent on their team letting them off the leash. With the overall Vuelta win looking like a stretch, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ineos started to stage hunt.

The rolling terrain at the start will suit the stronger riders and many of the faster men might not make the break. And so the final pick goes to Slovenia’s Jan Tratnik at 40/1 – he’ll probably have to go early and solo on the climb but is wily enough to pull it off. 

Stage 10 Bets

Mauri Vansevenant 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Matteo Trentin 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Andreas Kron 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Posted 21.14 BST Mon 23rd Aug 2021