Stage 11 – Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén (133.6km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Michael Storer (16/1)

2nd Mauri Vansevenant (40/1)

3rd Clément Champoussin (22/1)

4th Dylan Van Baarle (40/1)

Stage 10 Bets

Mauri Vansevenant 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 - 2nd

Matteo Trentin 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Andreas Kron 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Half-chapeau. It took the best part of 70km for the break to finally form, and in the end it was a big one of 31 riders, packed with talent and an assortment of rider types. Trentin, Aranburu, Herrada, and De Tier forged a 30sec headstart before the climb, but it was in vain as the superior climbers came to the fore. And none are going better than Michael Storer who secured his second stage win of the race.

Behind, Roglič attacked on a steep section and gapped his rivals, only to give up that advantage with a spill on the descent. But he still put time into the Ineos pair of Bernal and Yates who look a level below just now.

Stage 11 Preview

It’s short at just over 130km, up and down all day, and has a nasty sting in the tail with a kilometre of silly gradients (20% plus) up to the line in Valdepeñas de Jaén. We have the second-category Puerto de Locubín (8.8km at 5%) which peaks out 8km from the finish, but ultimately the stage will be won and lost on that final wall.

The profile suggests a breakaway win is favoured – either way, there will still be attacks and gaps between the main favourites come that vertical ascent to the line.

Contenders

Previous winners here – Igor Antón, Joaquim Rodríguez, and Dani Moreno – suggest a proper climber is favoured to take the spoils. But it’s a relatively short, explosive effort, and some of the faster men may also fancy their chances. 

Michael Matthews is again near the top of the market at around 12/1 having been favourite for stage 10. Ultimately, he didn’t make the break, but Team BikeExchange will surely be eyeing this one up, and it can be won in different ways – from the break, or by policing it and controlling from the front. 

If we’re looking for climbers to win from a break, then how about Michael Storer again? He looks unbeatable going uphill right now and is available at a juicy 40/1. This is probably not ideal for him though, and another win would just be greedy, no?

Let’s be brave and leave Andreas Kron out of this one – he’s fancied yet again at around 14/1 and Lotto–Soudal will definitely want someone in the break, but Kron might be favoured by a more mountainous parcours.

One man who made one of the embryonic breaks on stage 10 so is clearly in stage hunting mode is Jan Tratnik. Again, it’s not an ideal profile for the Slovenian but at a big-looking 100/1 is worth keeping onside for small stakes. At some point, his Bahrain–Victorious teammate Mark Padun will also be unleashed – he’s a much shorter 22/1 for this, but again is probably favoured by a bigger climbing day.

With Egan Bernal and Adam Yates struggling to stay in touch in the general classification, Ineos Grenadiers will be looking for stage wins to save their race, and they have options for this – both Jhonatan Narváez and Dylan Van Baarle made the break on stage 10 and performed better than most. The finish looks perfect for Tom Pidcock though he doesn’t look himself right now, and you can never right off the classy Richard Carapaz from stealing the day. On balance, Narvaéz is the most attractive, and is a juicy 50/1.

The Deceuninck–Quick-Step pair of  Mauri Vansevenant and Andrea Bagioli were also in the break on stage 10, with the former winning the sprint for second. To be fair, Vansevenant was swinging for a while up the climb and did really well to hang on. Bagioli was better on the similar finish up the Alto de la Montaña de Cullera on stage 6, finishing third, and both have chances here. Again, the Belgian is the much bigger price (50/1 compared to 22/1). 

Astana–PremierTech are also after getting stage wins now and their best chance is probably Alex Aranburu. He made the break in stage 10 but shot his bolt somewhat by following the move of Matteo Trentin before the final climb. Both could play a role in this final from a break or with the chasing pack. 

If we are, as history would suggest, going to see a climber lifting their arms, then few are going better than AG2R Citroën’s Geoffrey Bouchard. This stage really doesn’t look like one for him, but sometimes it’s just best to back the men who keep showing at the front of affairs, and Bouchard has definitely done that. He’s added to the big price punts at 100/1.

And finally, if it all comes back together then guess who might like this finish? He had a bit of a spill on stage 10, pushing on the descent unnecessarily, but Primož Roglič seemed none the worse for it afterwards and he clearly intends to enforce his superiority wherever possible; at 5/1, he’s a win bet saver. 

Stage 11 Bets

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Geoffrey Bouchard 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Primož Roglič 2pts win @5/1

Posted 21.47 BST Tue 24th Aug 2021