Stage 9 – Puerto Lumbreras > ALto de Velefique (188km)

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Stage 8 Result

1st Fabio Jakobsen (6/4)

2nd Alberto Dainese (20/1)

3rd Jasper Philipsen (9/4)

Stage 8 Bets

Fabio Jakobsen 3pts win @6/4 - 1st

Alberto Dainese 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1 - 2nd

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! Despite Astana pushing on inside the last 40km and causing a couple of splits, the wind just wasn’t there to make the splits permanent and a full peloton arrived together for the final. The lack of straight roads in the last 5km made for a messy run-in – plenty of leadout trains looked organised at various points, but once inside the last km they’d all disintegrated and the main sprinters were left on their own.

FDJ again fell apart having arrived together with seemingly perfect timing inside the last 3km, and we can perhaps now say that the three best sprinters finished in the first three (with DSM’s Dainese replacing Démare in the sprinter hierarchy). Meanwhile, Jakobsen’s remarkable rise back to the top table of sprinters continues.

Stage 9 Preview

Big mountain day alert! This might not be the most decisive GC day, but some hopefuls will definitely fall away during this brutal stage. It’s downhill for the first 20km which will make it difficult for a break to form, and we may need to wait for the second-category Alto de Cuatro Vientos 70km in until the race settles down. It should in theory be easier than stage 7 for Jumbo–Visma to police the moves and ensure no GC threats get up the road, but it’s easier said than done.

Things will heat up on the huge first-category Alto Collado Venta Luisa which starts after the descent of the Cuatro Vientos. Classified as 29km at 4.4%, it’s easier to think of it as 7km at 9.2% due to the severe gradients in the middle section, and it’s here that we should see some action, or at least some whittling down as riders fall off the back.

Time gaps between the GC men are likely to be forged on the first half of the especial-category climb to the line – the Alto de Velefique (13.2km at 6.4%) – though any attacks will have to be on the tougher first section. Whether or not this will be for the stage is open to question.

Contenders

Breakaway or GC win? A big summit finish before a rest day tilts things in favour of the GC men but as it’s unclear who will ride to put pressure on Jumbo–Visma, we need to have a split stakes approach.

As with many stages, Primož Roglič is the favourite and it would seem a perfect stage for him to stamp his authority on the race. He’s done nothing wrong, looks the strongest rider in the race and the 7/2 about him looks right.

His biggest rival on paper, Egan Bernal, has looked a level below his Giro d’Italia form. Is he having to manage his chronic back issues? Is his form still building for the final week? His price of 25/1 looks huge considering who we’re talking about. His Ineos teammate Adam Yates has looked the better of the two and these climbs suit him much more than the sharp, steep finishes we’ve seen so far. Yates was going to be a pick but his price has tumbled (14/1 into 5/1 second favourite) whilst writing this which for me is no longer value. On price, Bernal is the selection.

How much has Bahrain–Victorious’ confidence in Mikel Landa been shaken after the first week? Enough to send someone up the road in search of a stage win? The entertaining Mark Padun was in ridiculously good form at the Critérium de Dauphiné earlier in the year winning two stages and immediately being installed as fourth favourite for the Tour de France. In the end, he didn’t even go as his race schedule had already been fixed for the year (apparently), but at over 25mins back off GC is now a breakaway option should the team want to deploy him.

Movistar were planning an attack on stage 7 to bridge to Carlos Verona and Nelson Oliveira until Alejandro Valverde’s crash. They might plan something similar here with both Enric Mas and Miguel Ángel López high on GC and looking good. Either one could challenge for the win but the paradox with having cards to play is who should attack first and potentially sacrifice their GC hopes? I think we’re all looking forward to see how Movistar decide to play those cards, but Mas at 33s looks decent value.

Hopefully, we’ll see some early attacks on the first-category Alto Collado Venta Luisa. The likes of Richard Carapaz, Jack Haig, Sepp Kuss, and Gino Mãder (who is combining domestique duties with raising money for charity based on the number of riders behind him on each stage) could each have a decoy attack to draw a response from the favourites and help their team leaders. 

As for the break, Romain Bardet has made a rapid recovery from his nasty spill on stage 5 – he was active on stage 7 and appears to be eyeing up an assault on the mountains jersey. Should he make the break, given his form coming into the race he could easily go all the way – at a short enough 14/1, he’s still worth an interest.

Astana–PremierTech’s Alexandr Vlasov looked a little vulnerable on stage 7 in a finish that didn’t suit and is now a minute down on Roglič. They might look to get someone in the break either to bridge or as each way value should the break succeed. The best man in that scenario is Ion Izagirre. At a big-looking 100/1, he’s the final pick.

Stage 9 Bets

Enric Mas 0.5 pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Egan Bernal 0.5pts each way (3 places) @25/1

Mark Padun 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Posted 21.12 BST Sat 21st Aug 2021