Stage 12 – Jaén > Córdoba (175km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Primož Roglič (5/1)

2nd Enric Mas (40/1)

3rd Miguel Ángel López (80/1)

4th Jack Haig (125/1)

Stage 11 Bets

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Geoffrey Bouchard 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Primož Roglič 2pts win @5/1 - 1st

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! Rather than get in the break, Team BikeExchange decided to control from behind to set up Matthews. Having seen the final climb, it’s clear that strategy was flawed, and the only team likely to benefit was Jumbo–Visma and their leader Roglič, who was again imperious on a climb like this. Matthews failed to make the top 20, with the top 10 on the stage pretty much the top 10 on GC.

Meanwhile, Magnus Cort is on some kind of form – away in the break, the catch was only made in the final 500m to deny him his second stage victory.

Stage 12 Preview

Two categorized climbs in the last third of the race make it a complicated final for sprint teams to control. Neither climb is particularly tough, but the most severe gradients come near the top of the second-category Alto del 14% making attacks over the top inevitable. There are, however, almost 20km of descent and flat for the race to come back together.

With an all-but guaranteed sprint day on stage 13, the stage is tilted towards a breakaway win, but with an abundance of downhill and rolling terrain, the battle to be in it could go on for a while – an uncategorized hill after 30km might give them their best shot.

Contenders

After a hard, fruitless day chasing on stage 11, will Team BikeExchange want a repeat show here to set up Michael Matthews? He’s the stage favourite at around 8/1 but may be better off getting in the break this time around. The climbing gradients are nothing like what we had up to Valdepeñas de Jaén which gives the Aussie a better chance of being in the mix come the final sprint. He’s probably due a bit of luck and this could be the day; the price though is a bit short.

At twice the price, Matteo Trentin offers a bit more value. Juan Sebastián Molano, the UAE–Team Emirates frontline sprinter, has gone home giving Trentin a free run at these types of stages. The Italian looks in super form, the climbs shouldn’t worry him, and is likely to be one of the fastest on the line.  

An attack at the top of a climb followed by a frenetic descent – how about a Romain Bardet special? He finished an excellent sixth on stage 10 and can pick up a few mountain points from the break. He could even attack from the main pack should it all come back together giving us a double option. Bardet, at 22/1, is another pick.   

Surely both Magnus Cort and Michael Storer must be feeling the effects of the last couple of stages, but who knows? Alongside Primož Roglič, they've been the standout performers of this Vuelta so far. All three of those are near the top of the market, with Roglič’s sprint always a danger should it all come back together. 

Slovenia’s Jan Tratnik is in danger of following Andreas Kron off the punting cliff. The opening part of the stage suggests you’ll need some power to make the break, and Tratnik is your man for that. The shallower gradients on the climbs are good for Tratnik, and he could use his power to motor away from rivals. He’s in again; let’s leave Kron for a day with an uphill start.  

As usual, Deceuninck–Quick-Step have options and will be looking to get at least one in the break. Andrea Bagioli and Mauri Vansevanent can both be explosive on a climb and have a sprint to get up in a close finish. Neither got involved on stage 11 so should have fresher legs for this. The bigger priced Belgian is again our pick, giving the stage bet selections a familiar look. 

Stage 12 Bets

Matteo Trentin 2pts each way (4 places) @14/1

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mauri Vansevanent 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Posted 21.23 BST Wed 25th Aug 2021