Stage 15 – Navalmoral de la Mata > El Barraco (197.5km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Romain Bardet (12/1)

2nd Jesús Herrada (80/1)

3rd Jay Vine (66/1) 

4th Tom Pidcock (80/1)

Stage 14 Bets

Egan Bernal 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Mark Padun 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1 - 1st

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! But it didn’t look like it for large parts of the stage. The benefit of having numbers in the break – Nicolas Prudhomme did a great job for AG2R to give Champoussin a dream ride behind and made Bardet work twice as hard as his breakaway companions. He was marked and leant on but still came away the strongest – chapeau!

Jay Vine put in a ridiculous ride (though I wonder whether a commissaire or moto camera might have spotted a very big sticky bottle to get him back to the break), and so too Tom Pidcock who appeared to find his climbing legs halfway through the stage, maybe also after a feed from his team car.

Disappointingly, no GC teams pushed from behind apart from a brief flurry from Cofidis to try to get Guillaume Martin into red. That failed, and gaps behind were small with teams clearly looking towards the brutal final week.

Stage 15 Preview

Another big mountain day, but it’s unclear how decisive it will be in terms of the general classification. The most taxing climbing gradients come in the second half of the first-category Alto de la Centenera which is only 70km into the day, and may even be where the breakaway is established.

In the last third of the race, the first-category Puerto de Mijares is long at over 20km but has relatively shallow gradients (average 5.4%) and so it’ll be tricky to forge gaps. On paper, this looks like another breakaway stage unless a GC team really wants to take it to Jumbo–Visma, which so far hasn’t looked likely.

Contenders

The problem we have in this year’s Vuelta is that the first four (effectively) in the general classification are quite content where they are. And so it’s crying out for a big team to attack the race and expose any weaknesses. Unfortunately, that big team, Ineos Grenadiers, are not in the shape to do so.

That said, Jumbo–Visma do actually have to take the red jersey at some point, which may mean they themselves take up the pace. There’s plenty of terrain to do that in the final week and so any decisive moves on stage 15 look unlikely. So, given the profile and the motivations behind, another breakaway win looks likely. 

Ineos Grenadiers will be looking to get someone up the road, especially after Richard Caprapaz’s withdrawal. Tom Pidcock appeared to be swinging all day in the break, though somehow managed to finish fourth on stage 14. But Pavel Sivakov is looking the strongest and should have a puncher's chance in the break should he make it. “El Siv” is a pick again at 33/1.

Jan Tratnik disappointed a little in the break on stage 14 (a 100/1 pick, he was 9/2 second favourite in-running before the last climb), so maybe Bahrain–Victorious will look to send someone else up the road here. Caruso is again the favoured pick for the bookies and may fancy fighting back in the mountains competition, but at 12/1 is plenty short enough.

Despite his win on stage 14, Romain Bardet still needs to defend the mountains jersey – and Bardet and Caruso may mark each other out of the day’s break. So we must consider Bardet’s teammate Michael Storer - if he’s in the break, then he’ll be a strong favourite but again it’s all about value. 9/1 is about right and in the balance towards giving him a stage pick. 

Trek–Segafredo’s Juan Pedro López is going very well and if given licence would be a lethal addition to the breakaway. At a big-looking 80/1, the other López is in.

Movistar may see stage 15 as a day to consolidate rather than attack, so they might be minded to send a potential stage winner up the road. Carlos Verona looks in tip-top shape and could’ve won stage 7 had he been given the green light from the team car a bit sooner. At 80/1, Verona is also worth a pop. 

AG2R–Citroën had two up the road on stage 14 but came away empty handed. These shallower gradients look good for Geoffrey Bouchard – he’s not the greatest descender but is super brave and is one to keep onside.  

We have to return to Lotto–Soudal’s Andreas Kron. Fifth on what was a sprint stage on Friday, surely the talented Dane will come away with a win somewhere in this year's Vuelta. He’s short at 25/1, but is in again. 

And finally, Deceuninck–Quick-Step – they again have options with Mauri Vansevnant and Andrea Bagioli. And again, the bigger-priced Vansevanent is a more attractive betting option, much more attractive in fact than his ugly yet endearing riding style.

Stage 15 Bets

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Juan Pedro López 0.5pts each way (3 places) 125/1

Carlos Verona 0.5 pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Geoffrey Bouchard 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @25/1

Mauri Vansevnant 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Posted 22.21 BST Sat 28th Aug 2021