Stage 16 – Laredo > Santa Cruz de Bezana (180km)

Profile

Stage 15 Result

1st Rafał Majka (40/1)

2nd Steven Kruijswijk (200/1)

3rd Chris Hamilton (150/1)

4th Adam Yates (80/1)

Stage 15 Bets

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Juan Pedro López 0.5pts each way (3 places) 100/1

Carlos Verona 0.5 pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Geoffrey Bouchard 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @25/1

Mauri Vansevnant 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. Going almost 90km solo, Majka dispirited the group of chasers behind (including stage 15 picks Bouchard, Verona, and Juan Pedro López) who were unable to make any inroads into his lead and eventually were subsumed by the peloton.

Kruijswijk and Hamilton came out of the pack but likewise stayed in a holding pattern behind the Pole. As suspected, the terrain just wasn’t there for any decisive action amongst the favourites, though Yates did steal 15secs with a late attack.

Stage 16 Preview

The final flat stage of this year’s Vuelta, but the parcours and indeed the betting suggest a bunch sprint is not guaranteed at all. The route contains over 2000m of climbing, including a 4.2km third-category ascent averaging 6.5%, though that comes 80km from the end and so is unlikely to be decisive.

But there are plenty more unclassified little rises, especially in the second half of the race, presenting inviting launchpads for attacks. With so many likely to fancy the break’s chances, it’ll be difficult to police its constituents, and then even trickier to hold it all together for the final.

Contenders

We’re into the final week and despite having had a day’s rest, plenty will be feeling the miles in their legs. With fewer sprint teams to share the workload, it’s here that so-called flat stages can become uncontrolled and perfect for opportunists. 

Having the fastest rider in the race, Deceuninck–Quick-Step will be leant on to do most of the pegging and the chasing. Fabio Jakobsen was not a happy bunny after his leadout train left him behind on stage 13 – both castigating and congratulating stage winner (and roomie) Florian Sénéchal in equal measure in front of the TV cameras at the finish. So it’s fair to say – despite still winning the stage – they’ll want to put things right here. Jakobsen is the favourite but at around 7/2 – much bigger than the odds-on prices of a few day’s ago and an indication that control is going to be difficult to maintain. 

Second and third that day are big contenders here. UAE–Team Emirates’ Matteo Trentin has fallen just short a couple of times but this kind of tough, almost classics-like terrain is very much up his street; there’s 12/1 available about him. Trentin’s fellow Italian Alberto Dainese was agonizingly close to hitching onto the back of the runaway Deceuninck–Quick-Step train and surely would then have had the sprint to get up. It shows that he doesn’t lack for strength, and he may even have the better of Jakobsen after a tough parcours. Dainese hasn’t let us down yet, so we’re in again at 9/1, which will look big if it all comes back together. 

We’ve seen nothing to suggest Arnaud Démare has the form or confidence to get his nose in front. But he is still in the race, still has most of his leadout, and is a proven winner at the very top level. However, at only a point bigger than Dainese, I’d rather be on the Italian. 

EF Education–Nippo’s Magnus Cort Nielsen has been nothing short of sensational – the boy’s brought some legs to this Vuelta. If it was his climbing strength that got him home on stage 6 then it was a superbly-timed leadout from Jens Keukeleire, after rival teams had exhausted themselves pulling back the break, that set up the Dane for his second victory on stage 12. Interestingly, Cort was dropped a couple times during that stage and on the road gave the green light for Keukeleire to sprint only to be convinced otherwise by his good friend. I wonder if the favour might be returned here and it’s the Belgian who is supported in a sprint. Keukeleire is clearly on good form, is big at 75/1, and is both a sprint and breakaway option.

Team BikeExchange have been luckless but have two excellent options here. Both Michael Matthews and Luka Mezgec have got strength and a sprint and either could take the win. Mezgec showed his form with 4th on stage 13, and on price is the favoured pick for this. 

Finally, Deceuninck–Quick-Step may want to get someone up the road to force other teams to work. They have several options, but I like the look of Josef Černý – he has the power to ride away from most as he showed when winning a similar looking stage at last year’s Giro, again in the final week. He’s also an option for a late attack should Jakobsen by feeling it or loses his teammate’s wheel again, though I have a feeling Sénéchal will look behind more often for his leader this time.

Stage 16 Bets

Alberto Dainese 1pt each way (3 places) @9/1

Jens Keukeleire 0.5pts each way (3 places) @75/1

Luka Mezgec 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Josef Černý 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Posted 19.03 BST Mon 30th Aug 2021