Stage 17 – Unquera > Lagos de Covadonga (185.8km)

Profile

Stage 16 Result

1st Fabio Jakobsen (9/2)

2nd Jordi Meeus (33/1)

3rd Matteo Trentin (14/1)

Stage 16 Bets

Alberto Dainese 1pt each way (3 places) @9/1

Jen Keukeleire 0.5pts each way (3 places) @75/1

Luka Mezgec 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Josef Černý 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. Sometimes you can be guilty of overthinking a stage and that was certainly the case on stage 16. Despite UAE riding hard and briefly gapping Jakobsen, Deceuninck–Quick-Step were all-in for the sprint and in hindsight the 9/2 about him was excellent value.

He still had to finish it off though which looked far from certain going through the super technical finish. But in the end, his positioning, strength, and timing was superior to those around him. Jakobsen has cemented his place back at the top table of world sprinters – something that was far from certain leading into this Vuelta.

Stage 17 Preview

We have a somewhat false general classification at the moment with Intermarché’s Odd Christian Eiking in red, but whoever is still near the top of the standings after stage 17 can consider themselves genuine contenders. That’s because the riders have a very big climbing day ahead – a double ascent of the first-category La Collada Lomena followed by the often used especial-category summit finish up to the Lagos de Covadonga.

Both climbs are brutal with several double-digit gradient sections and if a favourite attacks early, the race will end in bits. The breakaway will probably form on the third-category Altu de Hortigueru which starts 30km in, and many mountain jersey hopefuls will be looking to be in it. But anyone from that break hoping to take the day will have to be a top-tier climber given the climbing metres that lie ahead.

Contenders

A summit finish on an iconic climb ought to indicate a GC shootout for the stage win. But as stated previously, it’s unclear which team will push the pace and when, which gives the breakaway a fighting chance. 

It should be loaded with specialist climbers – those hunting a stage win, those looking to bag some KOM points on a pivotal day in that competition, and others who can be utilized later in the stage by their leaders. 

For climbers on form, look no further than Team DSM – stage 14 winner and current mountains jersey holder Romain Bardet, double stage winner Michael Storer, and stage 15 third place Chris Hamilton could all play a big part and DSM will be looking to get at least one of them up the road. However, Bardet will have to burn some matches going for maximum mountain points and Storer was surprisingly below his previous level on stage 15.  

Bahrain–Victorious also have multiple options but they also need to support their new leader Jack Haig. Will they use their clear climbing power to put rival GC teams under pressure? Or get someone in the break with a chance of stage victory? It’s a big call to try to set Haig up for an attack only to potentially jeopardise his place on the podium. I think they’ll get someone up the road. Damiano Caruso and Mark Padun are the most likely, but Mikel Landa and Wout Poels are also options.

Caruso is obviously a stage winner but we haven’t seen that much of Padun, who was so impressive at the Dauphiné – could this be the day? Landa has been losing time every day since he moved out of GC contention – has he really lost that much form since the Vuelta a Burgos? If so, why is he still in the race? Or has he been consolidating for a pop at a stage win? At more favourable odds, I think Landa is worth a punt. 

Ineos Grenadiers’ Pavel Sivakov tried several times to make the break on stage 15 but was ultimately luckless. Though he may be seen as an important domestique, Ineos are after wins at this point and having a man up the road increases their chances of achieving that. At a decent 40/1, Sivakov is the second breakaway option. 

To the GC men, and the price on Egan Bernal to win a stage has shortened since the 50/1 available a few days ago, presumably due to a thought or hope that he’s going to peak in the final week. That may be true, and it would certainly set up an intriguing battle between himself and Primož Roglič, but it’s speculative at this stage. Adam Yates at twice the price, 40/1, appeals more. He’s looked punchy and eager to attack – a well-timed strike here could see him take the day.     

For the umpteenth time, Roglič is the likeliest winner and his short price reflects that. A dominant stage win here would see him back in red and would allow a more defensive approach for the rest of the race. Simply, he can go a long way to winning the Vuelta on this stage, and must be a win saver pick.

Will the Movistar pair of Enric Mas and Miguel Ángel López ride to defend their podium positions or really take it to Jumbo–Visma? No doubt they’ll try a one-two attack at some point. Mas has looked the strongest, but López, given he’s a minute further back on GC, could be the one to slip away.

Stage 17 Bets

Mikel Landa 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Adam Yates 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Primož Roglič 2pts win @4/1

Posted 22.32 BST Tue 31st Aug 2021