Stage 18 – Salas > Altu d’El Gamoniteiru (162.6km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Primož Roglič (4/1)

2nd Sepp Kuss (33/1)

3rd Miguel Ángel López (14/1)

4th Adam Yates (40/1)

Stage 17 Bets

Mikel Landa 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Adam Yates 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1 – 4th

Primož Roglič 2pts win @4/1 – 1st

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! But chapeau also to Ineos Grenadiers and Egan Bernal for having the bottle to take it to Roglič on the penultimate climb. It was ultimately futile, but Bernal animated the stage with his early attack and you never know until you try. All of the breaks – including a sizeable one packed with quality – were chased down by the furious pace behind on a full gas day from gun to tape.

Both Mas and López put in a dig from the trailing group of favourites, but they all appear very evenly matched and none got away. Yates – who was able to sit in following Bernal’s attack – got cut up on the tricky run in which (frustratingly) cost him second or third on the stage.

Stage 18 Preview

If riders thought stage 17 was tough, then they won’t like this very much. Yet, as is sometimes the case, a more difficult profile can make for more defensive riding. Many will be dreading the final especial-category Altu d’El Gamoniteiru – a sister mountain of the mighty Alto de l’Angliru – which is 14.6km at a staggering average of almost 10%, and that includes a kilometre long plateau in the middle.

Plenty of damage can be done on this climb so an early attack as we saw on stage 17 seems unlikely. The road goes up pretty much from the gun and a first-category climb after 40km should allow a strong group of climbers to form the day’s break. And with all thoughts in the peloton towards that final monster, it could go all the way.

Contenders

With Jumbo–Visma and Primož Roglič now in control of the race and therefore with no need to ride aggressively, this does look like a day for the breakaway. However, such are the consistently brutal gradients on the final climb, any break is going to need 5mins plus at the bottom if things start to kick off early behind. 

As we’ve said, the first four on GC aren’t necessarily content where they are, but they’re not going to try some Hail Mary attack that could jeopardise their positions. So it’s down to Ineos Grenadiers again – can they put the hammer down for a second day running? 

Of the favourites, Movistar’s Enric Mas is the biggest price at 33/1. He managed to stay with his rivals despite apparently suffering a great deal after his spill on stage 16. He’s the GC saver on value should it all come back together. 

Team DSM now lie 1-2 in the mountains classification, and we can expect both Romain Bardet and Michael Storer to get ahead here - with perhaps Bardet targeting the jersey and Storer the stage win. The Aussie was again on the march in the failed break on stage 17 and is a best price of 18/1 to take a third stage victory. He’s simply one of the standout strongest riders in the race and is the first break pick. 

The other KOM jersey contenders – Damiano Caruso and Rafał Majka – will most likely go with Bardet (or they’ll all mark each other out) and will also be strong stage contenders but will no doubt tire those legs picking up points – not ideal heading into the final climb.

We saw Bahrain–Victorious’ Mark Padun show himself at the front of affairs for pretty much the first time in this Vuelta on stage 17. Could he be riding himself into his Dauphiné form? It’s possible, but we haven’t seen enough so far to suggest it. 

One we do know is on some super form is Pavel Sivakov. Unfortunately, he’s also Ineos’ best domestique. WIll they reward his good work and allow him up the road? At a big-looking 50/1, he’s worth another pop.

Astana–Premier Tech have not had a good Vuelta and lost another good rider on stage 17 in Luis León Sanchez. Aleksandr Vlasov also took a heavy tumble, leaving them effectively with three riders. However, Ion Izagirre did manage to ghost into a couple of breaks and showed that his legs might be coming round. If the roads are wet, then his descending skills may also give him an edge. He’s also a best price of 50/1 and is in.   

Finally, the most impressive performance on stage 17 from outside the top 10 on GC was from AG2R’s Clement Champoussin who finished 10th showing he’s carrying some great form going into the final week. At 28/1, he’s our last breakaway pick. 

Stage 18 Bets

Enric Mas 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Michael Storer 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Clement Champoussin 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Posted 21.57 BST Wed 1st Sept 2021