Stage 19 – Tapia > Monforte de Lemos (191.2km)

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Stage 18 Result

1st Miguel Ángel López (18/1)

2nd Primož Roglič (3/1)

3rd Enric Mas (33/1)

Stage 18 Bets

Enric Mas 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1 – 3rd

Michael Storer 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Clement Champoussin 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Half-chapeau. But a full chapeau to Michael Storer who raced clear from the breakaway near the top of the second climb over 70km from home. Unfortunately, Bahrain–Victorious – who were unrepresented in the break – rode most of the day to peg the front group, and the 2mins he had at the bottom of the Altu d’El Gamoniteiru wasn’t quite enough.

When it kicked off behind, it was López who slipped away after Bernal had put in the first attack, but there was minimal movement on GC positions. Roglič’s lead over Mas is now 2mins 30secs, and barring disaster should land his third Vuelta in a row on Sunday.

Stage 19 Preview

If you’re not an exceptional climber or time trialist, then this is your last chance of a stage win in this year’s Vuelta. So, as that covers the majority of the field, there should be a big fight for the break. Three categorised climbs are packed into the first 60km, and although none of the climbs are too severe, they should allow a break to form.

The second half is flatter but with plenty of bumps that can be used as launchpads for attacks so teams with numbers in the front group will have a big advantage. In short, the stage winner looks likely to come from a reduced sprint or late attack from the breakaway.

Contenders

A number of different riders and rider types can win stage 19, so the staking plan should try to cover a few options. However, three men with similar profiles are at the top of the market – the so-called classics sprinters Magnus Cort, Matteo Trentin, and Michael Matthews. They’re generally not quick enough to match the pure sprinters in a bunch finish, but after a lumpy parcours will be the fastest guys left. 

Cort has had a superb Vuelta with two stage wins, and along with Michael Storer has been one of the standout performers. However, his win on stage 11 was slightly fortuitous in the sense that both UAE–Team Emirates and Team BikeExchange had to run themselves into the ground chasing the breakaway and then got jumped by a perfectly-timed leadout from Jens Keukeliere. In a straight shootout, is Cort really faster than Trentin or Matthews these days?

Team BikeExchange appear to be riding a little short of confidence and have been luckless when trying to force a result – they might be minded to throw as many riders up the road as possible to maximise their chances. So if the chips don’t fall for Matthews, Luka Mezgec might have an option. 

Trentin has been close with three top-fours and has shown well throughout the Vuelta, often driving the bunch on for teammates. A veteran of 11 Grand Tours, there should be no issues about his three-week stamina – the Italian is the pick of the top three and a win bet selection.

As we might expect, Deceuninck–Quick-Step have a number of options for this type of stage. Fourth favourite, surprisingly, is green jersey wearer Fabio Jakobsen, suggesting that they might try to control the stage from behind and deliver him in a sprint finish. It’s possible, but the break is likely to be big and difficult to peg back. I think they’ll throw some guys up the road instead.

We know that Florian Sénéchal can win from a reduced sprint, so too Andrea Bagioli, though the young Italian may be tiring a little as he looks to complete a first Grand Tour (he was a DNF in last year’s Vuelta on debut). Preferred is the Czech powerhouse Josef Černý – this is just the sort of terrain where he could time trial away from tired legs in the break and is a big price at 66/1.

And finally, in case he thought I’d forgotten him, Andreas Kron has done well in making all the wrong breaks and missing all the right ones deep into the third week, showing his form if not his luck is still decent. His climbing is good enough to make the selection, he has a punch to whittle down the front group on some of the closing lumps, and then a sprint to finish it off from a reduced group – easy, no?  

Stage 19 Bets

Matteo Trentin 1pt win @8/1

Josef Černý 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Posted 22.12 BST Thu 2nd Sept 2021