Stage 20 – Sanxenxo > Castro de Herville (202.2km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Magnus Cort (11/1)

2nd Rui Oliveira (50/1)

3rd Quinn Simmons (50/1)

4th Andrea Bagioli (16/1)

Stage 19 Bets

Matteo Trentin 1pt win @8/1

Josef Černý 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1 - 6th

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. The breakaway won but weren’t handed the victory as we might’ve imagined. Whether by accident or design, Team BikeExchange found themselves without their chosen rider (Matthews) in the break and so took it upon themselves to control an 18-strong breakaway. That was always going to be tough.

They were helped by Team DSM, riding for Dainese, and we saw a fantastic tug-of-war between the breakaway and the peloton – kilometre after endless kilometre, the balance shifting with every clock change. In the end, both teams ran out of men and ran out of legs. Cort was helped massively by having Lawson Craddock with him in the break and again came out the strongest for a third stage win.

Stage 20 Preview

Though there aren’t any huge mountains, there’s still plenty of tough-looking terrain to put riders and teams under some serious pressure. That means Primož Roglič and Jumbo–Visma will have to be very wary of planned long-range attacks and the odd unexpected move. Movistar too, as we presume they’ll be out to defend their podium positions rather than attack the man in red.

So, it’ll be left to Ineos Grenadiers and Bahrain–Victorious to animate the stage. Given how they’ve ridden this week – especially Ineos and Egan Bernal – they’re sure to try something. That puts a breakaway win in doubt, but it should be a strong group that forms over the hilly opening 60km and they might take some catching.

Contenders

For the breakaway, look no further than Team DSM’s Michael Storer and Romain Bardet. They probably could’ve done without burying themselves in the fruitless chase on stage 19 – especially after two tough mountain stages – but nobody is fresh at this point and some riders, like Magnus Cort for example, have just got better legs than everyone else. Add Bardet and especially Storer to that exclusive club. What a ride from the young Aussie on stage 18 – as impressive if not more so than his two stage wins.

Only five points separate these two in the mountains classification which will be decided on this stage. So if both get up the road, some interesting calls will have to be made. Surely the smart move would be to allow Bardet to take the KOM points and the stronger Storer to go for the stage. That would be a good problem for DSM to have, but Storer gets the nod as the first bet selection.    

Looking at other climbers who’ve impressed this week, and at a big price Cofidis’ Rémy Rochas rode a blinder trying to keep Guillaume Martin in GC contention on stage 17. The Frenchman already has some good results this season from the Tour de l’Ain and the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. At 100/1, he’s worth a speculative nibble.   

Ordinarily, I’d be bigging up the chances of Pavel Sivakov at this point, and if he’s given licence to go in the break will be a threat for the stage win. However, if Jumbo–Visma and Movistar are policing moves, they surely won’t allow him up the road as he’d be a danger as a bridge-man for Egan Bernal.

Sivakov has done great work setting up Bernal this week and I think Ineos will try the same again. With a good result here, and given his better time trialling than Miguel Ángel López, Bernal has a squeak of making the podium. His punchy form has been great to see this week and he’s sure to give it another go on the final road stage – why wouldn’t he? Bernal is the next bet pick.

Finally, and with almost certainly the last chance for Spain to land a win at their home Tour, let’s add David de la Cruz to the portfolio. He clearly has good legs and has repeatedly attacked off the front group. Given his 10th position on GC, more than 9mins down, it’s not impossible he tries to make the breakaway, but his best chance is probably to stay with the favourites and attack late as he did on stage 18. Whilst the others mark each other, he might just get enough of a gap to take the day.  

Like most stages, Primož Roglič is the favourite at around 13/2 and he may well be in a position to win if he wants to. However, he has his iconic summit finish win at the Lagos de Covadonga and I suspect if someone is 30secs up the road who poses no threat in the overall, Roglič won’t deny them that glory.

Stage 20 Bets

Michael Storer 1pt win @12/1

Remy Rochas 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Egan Bernal 1pt win @16/1

David de la Cruz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Posted 22.39 BST Fri 3rd Sept 2021