Stage 21 – Padrón > Santiago de Compostela ITT (33.8km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Clément Champoussin (33/1)

2nd Primož Roglič (13/2)

3rd Adam Yates (33/1)

4th Enric Mas (40/1)

Stage 20 Bets

Michael Storer 1pt win @12/1

Remy Rochas 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Egan Bernal 1pt win @16/1

David de la Cruz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. A great stage – for all the world it looked like the breakaway had the day with an 11mins gap and little action behind. However, Ineos set up Bernal for a long-range attack which ate into the advantage. When Yates pushed on though, Bernal himself was distanced. After a flurry of one-two punches, López missed a split and suddenly found himself being leant on to do the chasing.

He couldn’t do it, and saw not only his podium spot but his whole Vuelta up in smoke (he was last seen climbing into a team car on his phone and now apparently has gone awol). Meanwhile, Champoussin came from nowhere to mug the favourites to land a very special victory.

Stage 21 Preview

The final stage into Santiago de Compostela is an individual time trial that is plenty long enough for gaps to be closed in the general classification. However, the only thing really in play in the GC is third spot – Adam Yates is a minute behind Jack Haig in third which is doable if the Brit is on a flying TT day.

The stage itself is not flat or even rolling – there are a couple of decent rises at halfway and then up to the line which might favour the climbing/TTer over the specialists. We also have a technical finish, so those consolidating positions could ease off to make sure their day doesn’t end up in a roadside barrier.

Contenders

We have an unsurprising odds-on favourite to bring the curtain down on the last Grand Tour of the year. Primož Roglič has been (almost) wheel perfect in this year’s Vuelta. Bar a slip attacking on a descent, Roglič has been incredibly dominant in defence of the title he’s about to win three years running.

He’s a genuinely well-liked and respected rider in the peloton and nobody would begrudge him this deserved victory. Let’s hope he’s on top form and avoids accidents to race Tadej Pogačar again in next year’s Tour de France. 

Obviously, the 1/3 about him is not a betting prospect but will he win? The only thing that would deny him would be if he took it easy and rode ultra-conservatively. That doesn’t seem to be in his nature, so I fully expect Roglič to deliver the win and his second stage win of the Vuelta (though he probably could’ve won twice as many had he been minded).

So who could challenge? Not many. The vast majority of the peloton will be demob-happy.

Two names though stand out as potential challengers – Bahrain–Victorious’ Jan Tratnik was third on the opening time trial and is the current Slovenian time trial champion.

However, he doesn’t appear to quite have the form he showed in the Giro d’Italia or indeed the Olympic road race. Even though his team have had a fantastic Vuelta, let’s give Tratnik he swerve for this.

I much prefer Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s Josef Černý. He’s spent the whole race either driving sprint trains, putting himself in the gutter to drop riders in crosswinds, or nursing home his sprint leader Fabio Jakobsen in the autobus. This is his chance to show his form, and at around 10/1 is a decent each way bet. 

Considering his legs and time trialing ability, it’s probably also worth keeping an eye on Magnus Cort, but after three stage wins, it’s unclear how motivated he’s going to be for this.

Stage 21 Bets

Josef Černý 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1

Posted 20.18 BST Sat 4th Sept 2021

Stage 21 Result

1st Primož Roglič (2/7)

2nd Magnus Cort Nielsen (25/1)

3rd Thymen Arensman (400/1)

Stage 21 Bets

Josef Černý 1pt each way (3 places) @10/1 - 4th

Overall Vuelta a España 2021 result

Total stakes: 102.0pts; Profit/Loss: +5.6pts (+5.5%)