Stage 5 – Tarancón > Albacete (184.4km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Fabio Jacobsen (9/4)

2nd Arnaud Démare (4/1)

3rd Magnus Cort Neilsen (80/1)

Stage 4 Bets

Michael Matthews 2pts each way (4 places) @7/1

Matteo Trentin 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. In the end, the final kicker wasn’t tough enough to shake out the pure sprinters, and it was Jakobsen who proved the strongest for a remarkable Grand Tour win only 12 months after his horror crash in Poland. FDJ were much more organised and Démare showed that his form isn’t far away coming in second; the sprints to come are clearly going to be competitive affairs.

Both Matthews and Trentin – who as suspected was the designated sprinter for UAE – were a bit far back when sprints were unleashed and finished just outside the places.

Stage 5 Preview

Flat and straight as the riders make their way south-east across the dry plains of Castilla-La Mancha. If the wind blows, these exposed roads will be ripe for echelons and panic among the GC teams. As it stands, the forecast doesn’t suggest that will be the case, making a sprint finish all but certain. The last kilometre is much like the previous 183 – flat and obstacle-free which will favour the pure fast men.

Contenders

The previous two sprint stages suggest there’s not a great deal between the three fastest men on the startlist. Fabio Jakobsen showed impressive strength to get up on stage 4 for a memorable win and can rely on a super strong Deceuninck–Quick-Step team to position him well in the final (and indeed in any crosswinds should they pick up). He’s the favourite at slightly odds-against and on the evidence so far is the likeliest to have his hands in the air.

Stage 2 winner Jasper Philipsen got squeezed on the slight bend to the line on stage 4 and lost his chance to challenge for the win. This finish is a lot more straightforward and we can expect him to be a major player again here. You can have 3/1 about the Belgian to get his second win of the Vuelta.

After poor positioning and a mechanical for leadout man Jacopo Guanieri on stage 2, Groupama–FDJ were a lot better on stage 4, delivering Arnaud Démare into a winning position, though he was ultimately out-muscled by Jakobsen. It showed that Démare isn’t far off his best form, and assuming Groupama–FDJ don’t burn up their impressive leadout too early, is guaranteed to be in prime position for the run to the line.

Sprinting duties at UAE–Team Emirates were handed to Matteo Trentin for the tougher looking finish into Molina de Aragón, but he was never in a great position and could only finish eighth. The team will be working for the in-form Juan Sebastián Molano again here and he has a chance to threaten if the others find trouble and his sprint is timed well. The Colombian’s price is touching double figures in places.  

Australia’s Michael Matthews always appeared to be 10 yards behind where he ought to have been on stage 4 and also seemed to lose momentum with Philipsen when things got tight round that final bend. But he showed his top line speed is good in the first sprint and could easily make the places again, though it’s a stretch to see him winning.

And it’s difficult to see anyone else getting involved – at least for the top places. With the top three so evenly matched for speed, this may be decided by a slight hesitation, a mistimed kick, or even a bit of bad luck. On price let’s go for the Frenchman again – who was so dominant in 2020 – to even up the win column and complete the full set of Grand Tour stage wins. 

Stage 5 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @3/1

Posted 20.47 BST Tue 17th Aug 2021