Stage 6 – Requena > Alto de la Montaña de Cullera (158.3km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (3/1)

2nd Fabio Jakobsen (6/5)

3rd Alberto Dainese (20/1)

Stage 5 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @3/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

No chapeau. The whole complexion of this straightforward sprint stage changed after a touch of wheels near the front bringing most of the peloton down inside the last 12km. Bardet was the biggest loser – his GC challenge is over and we wait to see if he makes the startline for stage 6. The race was on at that point and a scramble ensued to reform sprint trains.

Alpecin–Fenix did by far the best job to get numbers on the front and delivered Philipsen for the win. Jakobsen came from a way back and had to go the long way round for second; that move squeezed Démare out and his chances were gone, not that FDJ deserved it after another poor leadout.

Stage 6 Preview

This stage looks relatively benign on paper but could be anything in reality. Exposed coastal roads make echelons a distinct possibility and GC teams will have to be vigilant. The stage ends with the third-category Alto de la Montaña de Cullera (2km at 9.4%), which is tough but short and so puncheurs could compete with race favourites and climbers. Moreover, there’s no guarantee that a strong breakaway will be chased down. All in all, lots of different scenarios could play out on what could be a chaotic day.

Contenders

A case could be made for a third of the field in this potentially complicated stage with a number of possible outcomes, so any predictions are made with that in mind. We also can’t be sure how the riders came out of the big crash on stage 5; many will be nursing some bruises. For this reason, I think the correct strategy is for small stakes at some juicy prices to have an option from different scenarios. 

Any winner will of course need decent climbing legs or a strong punch for the final ascent to the line. And in the list of breakaway candidates that have both time on GC and aren’t a GC threat should they leapfrog up the classification, there are plenty about – Jesús Herrada, Max Schachmann, Michael Storer, Harm Vanhoucke, Ion Izagirre, Tom Piddock, Omar Fraile, and many others.

The sharp finish would seem ideal for Pidcock, though he did profess to be pretty tired coming into the race so may need the rest day. That final also suits the punchy Herrada and at a decent looking 40/1, he’s a selection.

I’m also going back in at 50/1 with the impressive Dane Andreas Kron who could be on the verge of a breakthrough win. And also Australian Storer, the recent winner of the Tour de l’Ain, is worth keeping onside as he’s clearly on top form and riders from Team DSM are sure to have more freedom now that Bardet’s GC challenge is over.

Another who impressed in the Tour de l’Ain a couple of weeks ago was Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s Andrea Bagioli. He’s only 5mins off GC and is therefore unlikely to be allowed in a break, but if it comes back together then the Italian has the right characteristics to be fighting for the win. Even better for him would be if the group was slimmed down after crosswind action, and there’s no better team to instigate that than the men in blue.  

Second on this finish last year at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana (behind Tadej Pogačar) was Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. He was in the front group up Picón Blanco with his teammates Miguel Ángel López and Enric Mas in a surprisingly strong showing by the Spanish team. Any one of these could pick up the stage win, though perhaps it’s the 41-year-old who has the best characteristics for the climb and is second favourite at a best price of 15/2.

With them were the Ineos pair of Adam Yates and Egan Bernal, and it was Yates who looked particularly eager going up that climb. Were it not for the headwind thwarting attacks, we could well have seen the Brit claw back some time on his rivals. He’s our GC pick should the top men fight it out. 

All of this and we haven’t mentioned the stage favourite, Primož Roglič, who could easily run away with it in typically dominant style. At 5/2, he’s too short as a betting prospect given all of the variables, but the Slovenian hasn’t put a wheel wrong so far in this Vuelta, unusually avoiding all the spills.

Stage 6 Bets

Jesús Herrada 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (3 places) @75/1

Andrea Bagioli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1

Adam Yates 1pt win @11/1

Posted 22.07 BST Wed 18th Aug 2021