Stage 7 – Gandia > Balcón de Alicante (152km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Magnus Cort (50/1)

2nd Primož Roglič (5/2)

3rd Andrea Bagioli (20/1)

Stage 6 Bets

Jesús Herrada 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (3 places) @75/1

Andrea Bagioli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @20/1 – 3rd

Adam Yates 1pt win @11/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Half-chapeau. In the end, it was a breakaway win, somehow, and only just. A group of five got up the road and it was unclear who would ride to bring them back. But up stepped Team BikeExchange, riding for Michael Mathews, who got the pack to within a few minutes in a move that looked to doom the riders ahead.

Come the final climb and the break held a slender 20sec lead, but it proved just enough for Cort, with perhaps a little bit of gifting from Roglič. There were some gaps between the GC men but it’s difficult to read too much into that on such a short sharp effort. In opposing fortune for EF, Hugh Carthy was the big GC loser, now over 4mins back.

Stage 7 Preview

The sawtooth profile on this mountain stage looks primed for a breakaway win. The riders go straight up the first-category Puerto La Llacuna – 9.4km at 6.2% (but a double-digit average for the first 4km) – from the gun which should allow a critical mass of strong climbers to form the break that is unlikely to be pulled back.

Nothing is 100% certain, but it would be a tough day for a team (Bahrain–Victorious? Movistar?) to chase over five more categorized climbs, especially with what looks a more decisive mountain day coming up on Sunday. Either way, the race will likely be won on the steep final sections of the finish to Balcón de Alicante, which touches 14% in the last 3km.

Contenders

Famous last words, but I think we can go without a GC saver on this stage – it’s all in for a bit of breakaway bingo. So we’re looking for strong climbers with 10mins plus on GC who (as far as we know) have avoided falls, not got sick, don’t have any domestique duties, and haven’t confessed to being out of form or knackered in a pre-stage interview.

Last month’s Tour de l’Ain winner Michael Storer is clearly going well and with Romain Bardet out of GC reckoning has freedom to stage hunt. The 16/1 about him is plenty short enough but he seems an obvious pick. 

Rafał Majka has a penchant for a mountains jersey having picked up two at the Tour de France, and this is a good day to get ahead in that competition. He was excellent on domestique duties for Tadej Pogačar in the Tour and also raced at the Tokyo Olympics. Like Richard Carapaz, he might need a week or two to get his form on the upturn.

Majka’s teammate Joe Dombrowski has already gone close with his second place on stage 3, and he has definite chances to land a second Grand Tour win this season.

Ex-red jersey wearer Rein Taaramae is clearly in good nick but hit the deck in losing that shirt and would’ve had an emotional few days. His Intermarché teammate Jan Hirt might be the preferred option. An excellent climber who often targets a high GC finish but is yet to have his breakthrough stage win. He’s likely to find a couple better than him but the triple-figure odds are attractive. 

Team BikeExchange threw their lot in for Michael Matthews on stage 6 and they may stage hunt again on stage 7 with Nick Schultz. GC hopeful Lucas Hamilton is almost 7mins back, and although he could still make the top 10, it’s unlikely Schultz will be held back for him. Schultz is a pick at 40s.

The award for most El Patrón picks in this Vuelta looks likely to go to Lotto Soudal’s Andreas Kron. Unfortunately, the 28/1 available suggests I’m not the only one to think he’s destined for an emotional stage win as we’ve learnt more about his strength and humility following the loss of his mother. He finished high up on stage 6 – ahead of the likes of Landa and Carapaz – so he’s got the legs; if he makes the break, he’ll be one of the favourites.  

Two-time Paris-Nice winner and current German road champion, Max Schachmann, is surely too classy to leave this Vuelta without a stage win. Having not ridden the Tour de France, he should in theory be a bit fresher than most, and if he doesn’t get in the break here, will certainly be involved deeper into the race.  

The final steep run to the line is perfect for Cofidis’ Jesús Herrada. He’ll need to be on a good day given the company he might be in, but he’s surely a one to get up the road. Herrada is the final pick at 50/1

With a start that will be tricky to police, it’s possible that those closer on GC get into the break and are gifted the red jersey again by Jumbo–Visma which brings a whole load of other names into the equation. But we’ll stick with these five and hope that doesn’t happen. 

Stage 7 Bets

Michael Storer 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Nick Schultz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Andreas Kron 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Max Schachmann 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Jesus Herrada 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 22.54 BST Thu 19th Aug 2021